The sun without spots what happens. Sunspots Online
The number of sunspots, considered main characteristic level solar activity, rapidly drops to zero. At present, not a single spot is observed on the side of the Sun facing the Earth.
It is difficult to say whether there are spots on the far side of the Sun now, but based on photographs of the Sun 2 weeks ago, when this side was facing the Earth, there are no spots there either. Thus, our star is now very close in appearance to an ideal object, without any "shortcomings", as people imagined it before the beginning of the 17th century. What's on perfect celestial body, to which the Sun was then attributed, there are spots, so shocked contemporaries that the first reports about this were published anonymously, or in private correspondence, for fear of accusations of heresy. And even after the presence of spots was proved, they tried to save the "ideality" of the Sun, arguing that the spots are clouds, denying the now proven fact that the spots belong to the surface of the Sun.
The number of sunspots is the main parameter by which the 11-year solar cycle is measured, which has a history of almost 270 years. Once every 11 years, the number of sunspots reaches a maximum, and approximately in the middle between these peaks decreases to the smallest value called solar minimum. The nature of these changes remained unclear for almost 200 years, and only in the middle of the 20th century it was found that the magnetic field of the Sun changes with a step of 11 years (it alternately strengthens and weakens). Since spots are formed in regions of a strong field, the number of spots also reaches a maximum at the moments of maximum field strength. The magnetic and electrical energy of the Sun associated with it are the main "fuel" for solar activity (solar flares and emissions of matter are basically electrical and magnetic in nature). For this reason, during the years of the maximum solar cycle, the "explosive" activity of the Sun also increases. In the years of minimum, on the contrary, it decays.
Based on the picture that we are seeing now, the Sun is inevitably moving towards the next minimum, which will be reached at the end of 2018 - the first half of 2019. On this path, complex sunspot groups and associated solar flares must first completely disappear on the Sun, which seems to have already happened. Then regions of hot plasma disappear in the corona of the Sun, and the X-ray radiation of the Sun they produce falls to an almost zero background level. The remaining sunspots are extremely simplified and, although they are visually present on the disk, they can no longer heat the plasma or produce flares. At the next stage, sunspots completely disappear, although areas of increased magnetic field still visible on disk. Finally, at the point of minimum, the magnetic energy of the Sun almost completely vanishes, and it degenerates into an almost perfectly symmetrical object without any features. In this form, our star can exist from several months to a year, after which new fluxes of the magnetic field gradually begin to emerge from the depths of the Sun, the first spots appear, and the flywheel of the solar cycle begins a new 11-year revolution.
At the moment, the Sun seems to have begun to enter the third stage, characterized by the gradual disappearance of spots. At this stage, still a short time individual spots may appear and even faint flashes may occur, but these are only the last fading bursts of activity. The final disappearance of spots from the Sun may occur within the next 2-3 months.
Although low solar activity seems to be a favorable situation for the Earth, scientists in their "apocalyptic forecasts", paradoxically, very rarely associate them with high solar activity and, on the contrary, treat low activity with fear. This is due to the fact that the Sun in the history accessible to mankind has never produced superflares that could affect life. Periods of "freezing" of the solar cycle in history were observed and showed a correlation with climate. In particular, the last so-called Little Ice Age in the history of the Earth, observed at the turn of the 17th and 18th centuries, coincided in time with the well-known disruption of the solar cycle (the Maunder minimum), during which there were almost no spots on the Sun for almost 50 years - that is activity froze for several decades at a minimum point.
Concerns about whether the Sun will come out of the next minimum, and whether there will be a failure during which it will remain in it, are expressed as each solar minimum approaches. Over the past 200 years, however, there have been no repetitions of the situation with the Maunder minimum. From what is visible on the Sun now, its evolution is so far in full accordance with the behavior that was observed during the previous 11-year cycles. What happens next, further research will show.
The disk of the Sun is absolutely clean.
Pictures taken by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory) show that all spots have disappeared from our sun again. The only one that was May 9, 2017 is gone. There were no spots on May 10, and there are no spots on May 11 either.
According to experts, in 2017 there were already 32 days when the solar disk remained absolutely clean. There were exactly the same number of “clean” days last year. But this is for the whole year. And now - in just 5 months. The matter, perhaps, goes to a noticeable decrease in solar activity. What threatens global cooling. And who knows, suddenly observed vagaries of the weather - snow after the spring warmth - are the harbingers of an impending cataclysm.
Together with solar activity, the intensity of ultraviolet radiation will decrease. As a result, the upper layers of the Earth's atmosphere will become more discharged. And this will lead to space debris will accumulate rather than burn out.
And in 2014, spots disappeared from the Sun. Even then it looked suspicious, because the luminary was in the middle of the 11-year cycle of its activity - that is, at the maximum. It should have been strewn with spots, which just indicate activity. After all, solar flares and coronal ejections are associated with them.
And here again, something is wrong. Scientists are concerned. It is possible, they believe, that the spots can disappear for a long time - for decades.
About this back in 2010 - almost at the beginning of the current 24th cycle of solar activity - warned Matthew Penn (Matthew Penn) and William Livingston (William Livingston) from the US National Solar Observatory (NSO).
They were echoed by researchers led by Dr Richard Altrock, an astrophysicist at the Air Force Research Laboratory. They discovered oddities in the movement of plasma streams inside the Sun. And, as a result, anomalous changes in magnetic fields. Namely, it is from them - from these fields - that the formation of spots mainly depends. As a result, Altroc and colleagues also predicted that solar activity will be reduced in the coming cycle.
This is what a "normal" Sun should look like - with spots. Images of the Earth and Jupiter are added to the disk of the Sun for comparison.
If the sunspots stop appearing, then the Sun is likely to plunge into an extra long minimum of activity. Something similar has already happened in the history of mankind. For example, from 1310 to 1370, from 1645 to 1715. In those days, the number of sunspots was reduced by a thousand times compared to "normal" years. And the Earth was covered by the so-called small ice ages. According to chroniclers, the Thames and Seine froze, snow fell even in southern Italy.
As for when to wait for a new Little Ice Age, the opinions of researchers differ. Some threaten that the Earth will begin to freeze from 2020, others - that earlier. Like, it's already started.
Yes, you may be cold. But then there will be fewer magnetic storms, from which many suffer. After all, storms are from solar flares generated by spots.
BY THE WAY
It's been worse, it's been really bad.
There is evidence that our planet, at least once - in the Neoproterozoic era, about 700-800 million years ago - froze so that it turned into an ice ball. This is evidenced by sedimentary glacial rocks found almost at the equator. It turned out that the ice at that time covered the current tropical regions. God forbid, this will happen again... It is unlikely that civilization will survive such a severe cataclysm. And in those distant times, there was no one to worry about.
The sun enters a period of unusual and protracted hibernation, reports the Associated Press, citing a report by astronomers from the US National Solar Observatory, made at a conference on solar physics in New Mexico. In 2020, all spots on the Sun may disappear for many years, or even several decades. The reasons why activity on the Sun is decreasing are not known to scientists. However, they explain that the quality sunlight and the heat that the Sun radiates, these changes will not be reflected in any way.
Astronomers' predictions are based on the most recent observations. They say the sunspots are getting smaller, the storms are raging at the poles solar corona, weaken, and jet streams on the Sun disappear.
All these trends will become especially noticeable in 2020, when the next solar cycle begins. Recall that every 22 years magnetic poles The suns change places, forming 11-year cycles of solar activity. AT last time the really high solar activity was observed in 2001, when spots appeared on the Sun every day, and solar flares and storms caused interference in the work of artificial satellites of the Earth. The current solar cycle, which began in 2009, has already been called the calmest in the 21st century. However, it now looks like the next cycle will be even quieter.
Recall that in February the largest flare in the last 4 years occurred on the Sun. The flares affected the Earth's magnetic field for several days. Data received from spacecraft Stereo-B and Soho showed that the explosion caused a fast but not too strong coronal mass ejection as charged particles escape into space. When the solar wind reached Earth, it caused power grids to fail in several different places. Radio broadcasting was temporarily suspended in China.
An analysis of photographs taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory showed that the giant solar flare was caused by five sunspots rotating simultaneously.
"Around the World" said that a new solar minimum could lead to a new little ice age, as it was in the 17th century. But before getting scared, we must remember that the 17th century did not go down in history for this reason at all: humanity associates it with a cardinal intellectual upheaval, called the scientific revolution of the 17th century and reflected on all sides. human activity. It is quite possible that Bach would have been a brilliant composer without this, but without the invention of the hammer-action clavier and without the efforts of mathematicians of the 17th century solving the problem of uniform temperament of the twelve-step chromatic scale, he would not have been able to compose the Well-Tempered Clavier.
Longest periods without sunspots in the last 50 years: on the vertical axis is the number of days in which no sunspots were recorded on it. It can be seen that 2008 (according to the results as of September 27) has already bypassed all competitors, but the counting of days is still ongoing.
According to the statistics on September 27, 2008, the Sun remained "desert", that is, generally devoid of visible spots for 200 days. Less "spotty" was only 1954, when there were no spots for 241 days - but this year is not over yet. It is important to remember here that the spots are colossal prominences of storms that generate the activity of the solar magnetic field. Now, when this activity is as low as ever, and spots are practically invisible.
“The number of sunspots on the Sun is the lowest in the last 50 years,” adds heliophysicist David Hathaway. “We are experiencing a deep solar cycle minimum.”
Compare the two illustrations on the left - images taken by the SOHO solar probe on September 27 of this year and on the same day in 2001, in different phases of an approximately 11-year solar cycle. That year was the year of maximum solar activity, with a large number of sunspots, flares and powerful magnetic storms. But this year is the quietest and calmest. If it continues in the same spirit, then by the end of December 290 days without spots on the Sun can be recorded at once, and it will be possible to call representatives of the galactic Book of Records.
But for scientists, this calm period is a time of restless expectations and hopes. This time gives them a unique opportunity to study our luminaries without interference from annoying spots and storms, especially since the Sun is now studying an unprecedented number of devices.
Take, for example, such an area as helioseismology. By studying the vibrations of the sun's surface, scientists can infer the internal structure of a star, much like geologists do from earthquake data. And the absence of spots makes it possible to obtain a better picture of this process.
There are some nuances associated with the radiation of a star. Today is the dimmest Sun on record. Although the decrease in luminosity is small - a fraction of a percent - it nevertheless exists and affects the Earth's climate. And, of course, it raises the most troubling questions about what will happen to us if the Sun continues to dim.
Well, meanwhile, the peak of the maximum activity of the Sun is just around the corner; it is expected in 2010 and even then it will not seem enough to anyone. Read: "
The face of our luminary on July 17, 2014 is almost pure. Like the face of a girl using acne cream.
Scientists predicted the purification of the luminary. And they were afraid that such a development of events threatens our planet with unprecedented frosts.
Heliophysicists are sounding the alarm: there are suspiciously few spots on the Sun. On Wednesday - July 23, 2014 - they counted only three tiny groups, and last Friday - not a single spot at all. This is an anomaly. It shouldn't be like that. If only because the luminary is now in the middle of the 11-year cycle of solar activity - at the maximum. That is, it should be strewn with spots, which just indicate activity. Solar flares and coronal ejections are associated with them - with spots.
Experts analyzing data from the space solar observatory - Solar Dynamics Observatory - assure: the current maximum solar activity is the calmest of all observed over the past 100 years. Despite the fact that two years ago - just on July 23 - one of the most powerful X-ray flares occurred, enhanced by the interaction of several sunspots.
Scientists warned about the upcoming anomalies on the Sun back in 2010 - almost at the beginning of the current 24th cycle. This was stated by Matthew Penn (Matthew Penn) and William Livingston (William Livingston) from the US National Solar Observatory (NSO).
Colleagues echoed: they say, the period of minimum solar activity ended with a great delay, which lasted more than 26 months instead of the usual 16. They say that the solar wind is weakening - the flow of charged particles emitted by the star. Its pressure, according to the Southwestern Research Institute in San Antonio (USA), has decreased by an average of 20 percent over the past 50 years. And it's not good...
But most importantly, heliophysicists have noticed: sunspots and prominences - these peculiar indicators of the vital activity of the luminary - are becoming less and less. The previous 23rd 11-year cycle was the most modest in this sense in a century. The current one threatens to become even more modest - there is already evidence for this. And in the future, the spots may disappear altogether.
According to the forecasts of Penn and Livingston, by the 25th cycle there will be a complete purification of the star. And the period of minimal activity will drag on for decades.
Reduced magnetic induction
Spots arise as a result of perturbations in individual sections of the Sun's magnetic field. They are also related to its size. For example, it is known that spots do not appear if the magnetic induction in them falls below 1500 Gauss.
From 1990 to the present, Penn and Livingston have examined several thousand sunspots. And they found that the strength of their fields decreased from 2700 to 2000 gauss. And it continues to decline. Individual “dips” were recorded up to 1800. That is, the state of the magnetic field of the star is approaching the fact that spots simply cannot arise. The bleak predictions are coming true.
Only 500 gauss are left before the threshold value of magnetic induction. The reason for the “weakening” of the Sun is not yet clear to scientists. Most likely it is hidden in deep processes. Something has changed there. But what exactly? It is possible that the circulation of the plasma inside and near the surface of the star was disturbed.
What does it threaten?
A Little Ice Age is expected. Least
If events continue to develop in the same spirit, then the Sun will plunge into a super-long minimum of activity. And something similar has already happened in the history of mankind. For example, from 1310 to 1370, from 1645 to 1715. At this time, the number of sunspots was reduced by a thousand times compared to "normal" years. And the Earth was covered by the so-called small ice ages. And total number there were a thousand times fewer spots at that time than would have accumulated over the same number of years in our era. According to chroniclers, then the Thames and Seine froze, snow fell even in southern Italy.
As for when the current Little Ice Age will come, the opinions of researchers differ. Some threaten them by 2020, others earlier.
If the Sun does not heat well, then the Earth will freeze completely - it will turn into a “snowball”. And this has already happened.
COMMENTARY OF THE SPECIALIST
They are coming back
As the director of the Irkutsk Astronomical Observatory reassured state university, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Sergey Yazev, the spots did not disappear without a trace. One group was visible. Although not very clear. Not everyone could notice. And now there are new spots on the eastern side of the solar disk.
Is the cold due to sunspots? Such a hypothesis does exist. So far, however, it has not been proven. But it has not been refuted either.
Yes, there were very few sunspots between 1645 and 1715 (the so-called Maunder minimum). At the same time, it was quite frosty in Europe. Most solar experts, including myself, assume that these events are related. But it is hardly so simple - there were fewer spots, and it immediately got colder. If these phenomena are connected, then it is much more complicated - they are multistage. There is still a lot of work to be done to understand exactly how.
- Are there any calculations that show how much the Sun must change its activity in order for an ice age to begin on Earth? I asked Sergey Arkturovich.
“It's not easy either. After all, the Earth "adapts" to changes in the flow of solar radiation. For example, due to the fact that our planet flies around the Sun not in a circle, but in an ellipse, we are sometimes closest to the star, sometimes farthest. Due to this, the total flow of light and heat from the Sun varies by about 5 percent. But a lot depends, for example, on cloudiness. Let's say the planet Venus. It is much closer to the Sun, but it receives much less heat from the Earth. This is because a huge part of the solar radiation is reflected back into space by a powerful layer of Venusian clouds, in which there are never gaps ...
So does the Earth. When it gets too warm, evaporation of moisture increases, clouds form, reflecting the sun's rays. The result is less heat. But then evaporation decreases, which means that there are fewer clouds, and again more heat breaks through to the surface of our planet ... A magnificent system of automatic thermoregulation!
Therefore, the temperature on Earth depends not only on changes in the flux of solar radiation, but mainly on processes in the atmosphere and in the ocean - how heat is distributed and redistributed in the earth's shells. Compared to these factors, the Sun is a very stable source of energy. Due to fluctuations in the level of solar activity, fluctuations in the total heat flux change by no more than 0.5 percent. This is 10 times less than, say, due to the movement of the Earth around the Sun.
But if we take not the entire flux, but only its short-wavelength part - for example, in the ultraviolet range, then here the radiation can change, depending on fluctuations in solar activity, not by fractions of a percent, but by hundreds of times ...
Dozens of the most complex physical natural mechanisms operate on our planet, which operate both directly and indirectly. reverse side smoothing and, conversely, strengthening external influences. If they weren't there, the average temperature would swing from large amplitude, from terrible frosts to killing heat. The climate machine of the planet is well balanced - that's why life on our planet has successfully existed for almost 4 billion years...