When the asteroid Apophis hits the ground. Apophis will collide with the Earth in (5 photos)
Friday, April 13, 2029 This day may be fatal for the entire planet Earth. At 4:36 GMT, the asteroid Apophis 99942 with a mass of 50 million tons and a diameter of 320 m will cross the orbit of the Moon and rush towards the Earth at a speed of 45,000 km/h. A huge, pockmarked block will harbor the energy of 65,000 Hiroshima bombs - this is more than enough to wipe out a small country from the face of the Earth or shake a tsunami a couple of hundred meters high.
The name of this asteroid speaks for itself - that was the name of the ancient Egyptian god of darkness and destruction, but there is still a chance that he will not be able to fulfill his fateful destiny. Scientists are 99.7% sure that a boulder will fly past the Earth at a distance of 30-33 thousand kilometers. In astronomical terms, this is something like a flea jump, no more than a flight from New York to Melbourne and back, and much smaller than the diameters of the orbits of many geostationary communications satellites. After dusk, the population of Europe, Africa and Western Asia will be able to observe a celestial object that looks like an asterisk for a couple of hours. medium size, crossing the area of \u200b\u200bthe sky where the constellation Cancer is located. Apophis will be the first asteroid in the history of mankind that we will be able to clearly see with the naked eye. And then it will disappear - it will simply melt into the black expanses of space. It may disappear, or it may crash into the Earth and on this the history of our civilization will be interrupted forever.
Maybe it will pass. But scientists have calculated: if Apophis is exactly 30,404.5 km from our planet, he should fall into the gravitational "keyhole". A strip of space about 1 km wide, a hole comparable in size to the diameter of the asteroid itself, is a trap where the Earth's gravity can turn the flight of Apophis in a dangerous direction, so that our planet will literally be in the crosshairs of the sight at the time of the next visit of this asteroid, which will take place exactly in 7 years - April 13, 2036.
The results of radar and optical tracking of Apophis, when in again flew past our planet, made it possible to calculate the probability of it hitting the "keyhole". In numerical terms, this chance is 1:45,000! "It's not an easy task to realistically assess a hazard with a very low probability of an event," says Michael de Kay of the Clearinghouse and Hazard Evaluation Center at Carnegie Mellon University. “Some believe that since the danger is unlikely, then it is not worth thinking about it, while others, bearing in mind the seriousness of a possible catastrophe, believe that even the smallest probability of such an event is unacceptable.”
Former astronaut Rusty Schweikart has a lot to say about objects flying in open space, - once, having got out of his ship during the flight of Apollo 9 in 1969, he himself was such an object. In 2001, Schweikart co-founded the B612 Foundation and is now using it to put pressure on NASA to do something about Apophis as soon as possible. “If we miss our chance,” he says, “it would be criminal negligence.”
Let's say that in 2029 the situation will not be the best. Then, if we do not want the asteroid to crash into the Earth in 2036, we must deal with it on approach and try to move it to the side by tens of thousands of kilometers. Forget about the great technological advances we see in Hollywood movies - in fact, this task far exceeds the current capabilities of mankind. Take, for example, the ingenious method proposed in the famous "Armageddon", which was released on screens in 1998 - to drill a well a quarter of a kilometer deep in an asteroid and blow it up right inside nuclear charge. So - technically, this is no easier to implement than time travel. In a real situation, when April 13, 2029 approaches, we will only have to calculate the place where the meteorite fell and begin the evacuation of the population from the doomed region.
According to preliminary estimates, the place of the fall of Apophis falls on a 50 km wide strip that runs through Russia, Pacific Ocean, Central America and goes further into the Atlantic. The cities of Managua (Nicaragua), San José (Costa Rica) and Caracas (Venezuela) are located exactly on this strip, so they are in danger of a direct hit and total destruction. However, the most likely place of impact is a point in the ocean several thousand kilometers from the western coast of America. If Apophis falls into the ocean, a funnel 2.7 km deep and about 8 km in diameter will form in this place, from which tsunami waves will run in all directions. As a result, say, the coast of Florida will be hit by twenty-meter waves, which will bombard the mainland for an hour.
However, it is still too early to think about evacuation. After 2029, we will no longer be able to avoid a collision, but long before the fateful moment we can slightly knock Apophis off course - just enough so that he does not fall into the "keyhole". According to NASA calculations, a simple “blank” weighing one ton, the so-called kinetic impactor, which should hit the asteroid at a speed of 8000 km / h, will fit for this. A similar mission has already been performed by NASA's Deep Impact space probe (by the way, its name is associated with another 1998 Hollywood blockbuster). In 2005, at the behest of its creators, this apparatus crashed into the nucleus of the Tempel 1 comet, and thus information was obtained about the structure of the surface of this cosmic body. Another solution is possible when spacecraft with an ion propulsor, playing the role of a "gravitational tractor", will hover over Apophis, and its - albeit negligible - force of gravity will slightly shift the asteroid from the fatal course.
In 2005, Schweickart urged NASA officials to plan a rescue mission to install a radio transmitter on Apophis. The data regularly obtained from this instrument would confirm the forecasts of the development of the situation. With a favorable forecast (if the asteroid flies past the “keyhole” in 2029), earthly inhabitants could breathe a sigh of relief. In the event of a disappointing forecast, we would have had enough time to prepare and send an expedition into space that would be able to divert the danger threatening it from the Earth. According to Schweikart, it could take about 12 years to complete such a project, but it is desirable to complete all rescue work by 2026 - only then can we hope that the remaining three years will be enough to show positive results from the impact of our planet, barely noticeable on a cosmic scale. rescue ship.
In 1998, the US Congress instructed NASA to search for, record and track all asteroids with a diameter of at least 1 km in near-Earth space. The resulting "Space Security Report" contains a description of 75% of the 1100 alleged objects in existence. (In the course of these searches, Apophis, which did not reach the required size of 750 m, caught the eye of the researchers simply by a lucky chance.) None of the giants included in the "report", fortunately, poses a danger to the Earth. “But in the remaining couple of hundred that we haven’t been able to detect yet, anyone could be on approach to our planet,” says former astronaut Tom Jones, a NASA asteroid search consultant. In light of the current situation, the aerospace agency intends to expand the search criterion to a diameter of 140 m, that is, to capture in its network and celestial bodies half the size of Apophis, yet capable of causing significant damage to our planet. More than 4,000 such asteroids have already been identified, and according to preliminary NASA estimates, there should be at least 100,000 of them.
As the procedure for calculating the 323-day orbit of Apophis showed, predicting the paths along which asteroids move is troublesome. Our asteroid was discovered in June 2004 by astronomers at the Kitt Peak Arizona National Observatory. A lot of useful information was obtained by amateur astronomers, and after six months, repeated professional observations and more accurate sighting of the object led to such results that the JPL sounded the alarm. JPL's holy of holies, the Sentry asteroid tracking system (a super-powerful computer that calculates the orbits of near-Earth asteroids based on astronomical observations) made predictions that looked more ominous day by day. Already on December 27, 2004, the estimated chances of an expected collision in 2029 reached 2.7% - such numbers caused a stir in the narrow world of asteroid hunters. Apophis took an unprecedented 4th step on the Turin scale.
However, the panic quickly subsided. The results of those observations that had previously eluded researchers were entered into the computer, and the system announced a reassuring message: in 2029, Apophis will fly past the Earth, but will miss by the slightest. Everything would be fine, but one unpleasant trifle remained - that very “keyhole”. The tiny size of this gravitational "trap" (only 600 m in diameter) is both a plus and a minus. On the one hand, it will not be so difficult to push Apophis away from such an insignificant goal. If we believe the calculations, then by changing the speed of the asteroid by only 16 cm per hour, that is, by 3.8 m per day, in three years we will shift its orbit by several kilometers. It seems to be nonsense, but quite enough to bypass the keyhole. Such influences are quite within the power of the already described "gravitational tractor" or "kinetic blank". On the other hand, when we are dealing with such a tiny target, it is impossible to accurately predict in which direction Apophis will deviate from the keyhole. Today, predictions of what the orbit will be like by 2029 have an accuracy scale (in space ballistics it is called the "ellipse of errors") of about 3000 km. As new data accumulates, this ellipse should gradually decrease. In order to say with any certainty that Apophis is flying past, it is necessary to reduce the "ellipse" to a size of about 1 km. Lacking the necessary information, the rescue expedition may take the asteroid to the side, or may unintentionally drive it into the well itself.
But is it realistic to achieve the required forecasting accuracy? This task involves not only the installation of a transceiver on the asteroid, but also a mathematical model that is incomparably more complex than the one currently used. The new orbit calculation algorithm should also include seemingly insignificant factors such as solar radiation, terms added to account for relativistic effects, and gravitational influence from other nearby asteroids. In the current model, all these corrections have not yet been taken into account.
And finally, when calculating this orbit, another surprise awaits us - the Yarkovsky effect. This is an additional small but steadily acting force - its manifestation is observed in those cases when an asteroid radiates more heat from one side than from the other. As the asteroid turns away from the Sun, it begins to radiate the heat accumulated in the surface layers into the surrounding space. There is a weak, but still noticeable reactive force acting in the opposite direction to the heat flow. For example, twice as large an asteroid called 6489 Golevka under the influence of this force over the past 15 years has moved away from the calculated orbit by 16 km. No one knows how this effect will affect the trajectory of Apophis over the next 23 years. At the moment, we have no idea either about the speed of its rotation, or about the direction of the axis around which it could rotate. We do not even know its outlines - and this information is absolutely necessary in order to calculate the Yarkovsky effect.
However, already in 2013, NASA reported that the huge asteroid Apophis, which threatens the Earth, could collide with our planet in 2068. A scientific article was published, which was prepared by a group of researchers space phenomena, led by David Farnokchi. Scientists carry out their work at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, with the support of the University of Hawaii and the University of Pisa. In the process scientific developments more than 20 so-called “keyholes” have been identified, the impact of which on the asteroid Apophis can lead to a disaster that scientists have postponed more than once.
Among these cosmic phenomena, there was also one, during the passage of which Apophis will not be repelled, but, on the contrary, will be attracted to the Earth and, upon its appearance on April 12, 2068, may no longer miss it. Although the risk of a collision is not great, its probability is slightly higher than one in a million, scientists, nevertheless, have not ruled out such a possibility.
Initial calculations showed that Apophis could crash to Earth in 2029 or 2036, but subsequently they were not confirmed. However, passing by our planet, the space monster will change its orbit and return to it more than once.
Russian scientists have already managed to take the first steps towards saving the Earth. They offered new way protect the planet from asteroids - knock them off their trajectory with the help of strikes with other asteroids. To translate this idea into reality, a special laboratory for mathematical modeling of methods and methods of protection against asteroid and comet hazards was created in Russia. Russian and foreign scientists take part in the work of the laboratory. The project is financed by the won grant, the amount of which is 150 million rubles.
Project manager David Eismont suggested that it is necessary to disperse a small asteroid with the help of a gravitational maneuver and shoot down Apophis with it, changing its trajectory. With the help of the gravitational maneuver and the gravity of the planet, it is possible to significantly increase the speed of the cosmic body. By the way, this method is used to send spacecraft to the most distant distances in solar system without high fuel consumption.
Thus, certain calculations were made, according to which, in order to provide a gravitational maneuver of an asteroid-projectile with a mass of 1.4 thousand tons and a diameter of 15 meters near the Earth, a small engine and about 1.2 tons of fuel are needed.
Scientists intend to launch a beacon on a Soyuz rocket and land it on a dangerous asteroid. The project of this lighthouse is currently under development. We are talking about two spacecraft - Kaissa and Kapkan (the first is for reconnaissance, the second is for strike, with nuclear warheads). For the role of the projectile, scientists identified the asteroid 2011 UK10.
In the US, large-scale developments in this industry are also underway. The American HAIV program deserves attention, the essence of which is to create nuclear asteroid interceptors. This program is aimed at creating protective technologies to ensure the safety of the planet from the consequences of a collision with an asteroid. HAIV itself is a spacecraft designed to get inside an asteroid and explode there. That is, either the complete destruction of the object will occur, or it will be possible to move it from the trajectory of movement.
Another very interesting project was developed by the American company SEI. The essence of the project is to send small robots to the asteroid. Burrowing into the surface of an asteroid and throwing rock into space, these robots must change its trajectory.
Another American company has put forward a proposal to launch an infrared telescope into space to search for and track potentially dangerous asteroids.
Among the international developments, it is necessary to note the technology for painting celestial bodies, designed to protect the Earth from potential threats. The essence of the technology is to reduce the reflectivity of asteroids. To influence the movement of a space object, a special paint must be applied to its surface using a special space drone.
In addition, there are currently about 40 different ways to deal with potentially dangerous celestial objects. In particular, we can call a frontal strike of high power, detonation of a nuclear charge.
Some of the projects that are under development also attract attention. So, for example, the European Union intends to allocate about four million euros for the implementation of the NEO-Shield project, which involves the construction of a shield from asteroids. However, such a construction will be very expensive - its cost is estimated at about 300 million euros.
For the past eight years, scientists have been observing a celestial body that is rapidly moving towards the Earth. It was first discovered from the Kitt Peak Observatory (Arizona) by astronomers David Jay Tolen, Roy A. Tucker and Fabrizio Bernardi. The asteroid was assigned the code "2004MN4". Soon, with the help of preliminary calculations, it was found that it has a radius of 320 meters, and on April 13, 2029 it will collide with the Earth and bring with it a deadly cataclysm. Therefore, already a year after its discovery, in 2005, the meteorite was given the threatening name of the ancient god - Apophis.
According to the calculations of astronomers, the probability of its collision with our planet is 3 to 100. As you know, this is a rather small ratio. However, in the entire history of astronomy, there has not been one that would have such opportunities for colliding with the Earth as the asteroid Apophis. But opinions are divided, and some astronomers believe otherwise.
Like any asteroid, Apophis moves around the Sun. It takes 323 days to fly around the entire orbit. The speed of movement is 37,000 km / h. Weight - 50 million tons. Radius - 320 m. The asteroid Apophis, photos of which have already been presented by NASA, has a surface dotted with the fall of small meteorites.
per century computer technology the accuracy of astronomical calculations has been brought almost to the ideal, and scientists have found out everything, up to the point where the asteroid Apophis will fall. 2012, however, brought a lot of controversy to these very predictions. Some scientists claimed that it will collide with the Earth in 2029 in the west of North America, others - that in 2068 and on the territory of the Russian Federation.
But no matter how scientists argue, one thing is certain. If the asteroid Apophis falls to Earth, it will become global catastrophe. The death of civilization in a certain area is guaranteed. And even the end of all mankind is possible. The force of detonation in the event of a collision will be similar to the explosion of everything nuclear weapons that exists on our planet today.
Throughout the history of mankind, especially in the 20th and 21st centuries, the end of the world has been predicted many times. And every time the prophecies turned out to be unjustified, but only caused panic among the population. According to some people, the asteroid Apophis is another needless panic. Astronomers who are prone to statistics believe that this celestial body can by no means collide with the Earth, since quite recently (by cosmic standards), almost a century ago, our planet was subjected to a strong blow that brought down its force on Siberia. In those days, the strongest cataclysms were observed: the so-called "nuclear winter", radiation and some. According to the "statisticians", such cataclysms cannot occur so often. And the next similar collision awaits the Earth not earlier than in ten centuries.
And, agreeing with this, in 2013 NASA astronomers refuted the probability of a collision of Apophis with the Earth, announced at the beginning, reducing it to 1 in 250,000. The figure is much more joyful.
But no matter how scientists argue, and no matter how comforting calculations and theories are put forward, the human mind will always think and expect something terrible from a potential threat, and panic. Remember that you can sincerely believe in the near end of the world, but the probability was and remains negligible.
The Apophis meteorite, rapidly approaching the Earth, with a relatively low probability of falling onto its surface, is potentially very dangerous for all life on the planet.
A meteorite discovered in 2004, named Apophis (that was the name of the ancient Egyptian serpent god, the antipode of the sun god Ra), when colliding with the Earth, can cause an explosion that, by force, blocks the power of all nuclear bombs available in the arsenal of mankind. This conclusion was made by the director of the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences Boris Shustov. The probability of this meeting, which is "scheduled" for 2036, however, is so low that scientists around the world are not even in a hurry to join their efforts.
According to Shustov, if a 1-2 kilometer body collides with the Earth, it does not matter where it falls, the effect will be global. “If a body a few hundred meters in size, the same 300-meter Apophis, falls, then the consequences will be on a regional scale - the affected area of such an asteroid is the area of \u200b\u200bthe average European country,” Shustov said, speaking at the Roscosmos conference Russian Academy cosmonautics named after Tsiolkovsky.
According to Kirill Stihno, an employee of the NPO named after Lavochkin, the result of the collision of the Apophis asteroid with the Earth could be an earthquake, commensurate in strength with the catastrophe in Haiti. “The consequences of falling asteroids are not limited to a funnel, many of them, when falling, cause air shock waves that sweep away everything in their path. Also, when falling, a seismic effect may occur, ”Stihno told Interfax at a scientific conference at Bauman Moscow State Technical University.
Shustov, on the other hand, claims that the damaging factors from the fall of the astroid will be similar to the consequences of a nuclear explosion, with the exception of the absence of radiation. “The Apophis asteroid carries energy, the destructive power of which in TNT equivalent exceeds the power of all nuclear arsenals on Earth,” the scientist said. That is, in the event of a sad outcome, a region the size of European country or, let's say, a city with an agglomeration - such as Moscow and the region (in this regard, it is interesting to recall the etymology of the name of the meteorite, Apophis or Apophis as a snake, as well as the coat of arms of Moscow with George, conquering this snake, as well as the duties of the inhabitants of the capital of Russia personally justify this coat of arms by standing guard over the planet). So, according to NASA, the force of the explosion can be almost two and a half times greater than the power of the eruption of the Krakatoa volcano, which in 1883 almost sank the Indonesian island on which it stood. And more than ten times the force of the explosion (or fall - depending on what exactly it was) Tunguska meteorite.
At the same time, the scientist consoled that the fall of the asteroid Apophis will not lead to a "nuclear winter" and other global consequences, but will have consequences within the region. “We cannot yet say where the asteroid will fall. We can only talk about the probable zone of its fall,” the scientist said. He even presented a slide according to which the impact zone extends from the Urals, along the Russian border with Kazakhstan and Mongolia, across the Pacific Ocean, Central America, Atlantic Ocean and ends off the coast of Africa.
“The degree of threat from the asteroid is small, it is not as dangerous as journalists say. The probability of Apophis falling to Earth is only one in 100,000,” Shustov said. He noted that with a greater degree of probability it is possible to predict the fall of an asteroid body to the earth in 800 years, and just something like this should be feared.
Other Russian scientists adhere to a similar opinion. The head of the Federal Space Agency, Anatoly Perminov, noted that today, when it is obvious that the threat of the fall of the asteroid Apophis, according to calculations, was not so great, the heads of the world's leading space agencies have ceased to pay due attention to this problem. “The fact is that the asteroid Apophis is not very dangerous. But it is possible to work out a system on it, the creation of appropriate spacecraft, ”added the head of Roscosmos. He said that "negotiations have already been held on this issue with the European Space Agency and the European Union." “The matter did not go further than talks,” Perminov added.
How to avoid an explosion
However, the refusal of the world scientific centers to cooperate in solving this issue - or in finding ways to prevent similar problems in the future - does not in the least interfere with the attempts of domestic scientists to figure it out on their own. There were three ways to solve this issue. “The asteroid can be affected impulsively, that is, by an explosion or impact, or gravitationally by bringing a spacecraft of a certain mass to it. With its gravitational influence, the device will pull Apophis away from the Earth, ”the already mentioned Stihno formulated two of the three methods.One of the first companies that responded to the problem was the Ukrainian State Design Bureau Yuzhnoye (Dnepropetrovsk). They proposed using a modernized launch vehicle (LV) "Zenith" to eliminate the threat of a collision of the asteroid Apophis with the Earth. As the Scientific Secretary of the Scientific and Technical Council of the State Clinical Hospital Nikolay Slyunyaev told Interfax in 2009, in particular, we are talking about the possibility of retrofitting Zenith with a new third stage to minimize Apophis falling into the so-called "gravitational trap", which is possible during the asteroid's flyby of the Earth in 2029, and almost guaranteeing the probability of a collision during the next flyby in 2036.
“The upgraded Zenith, with its momentum, changes the trajectory of Apophis and minimizes the possibility of the tragic scenario -2036,” explained the representative of the State Design Bureau. At the same time, according to Slyunyaev, in order to be guaranteed to avoid a collision with an asteroid for the next 100 years, Zenit can be retrofitted with a third stage created on new technological principles. “Thousands of times more powerful push of the rocket system changes the course of the asteroid so that the probability of a collision in the next 100 years becomes zero,” he said.
As the interlocutor of the agency clarified, the plane in which Apophis moves, according to experts, is inclined to the equator by 3 degrees. “In this case, it is beneficial to carry out launches from a sea cosmodrome near the equator, from where Zenit has been launched since 1999,” Slyunyaev said. However, Slyunyaev also counted on the help of the United States, Russia and the EU to implement the project.
But this measure is not very popular, in particular, because there is a ban on bringing nuclear weapons into space. So said Andrei Finkelstein, director of the Institute of Applied Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences. True, according to him, “there is a very definite probability: if its trajectory passes through the “gate” about 1.5 km in size, then in 2036 it will definitely “fuck” at us.” Speaking about possible means of fighting the asteroid and how humanity can prevent a catastrophe, the scientist stressed that there are no ready-made means yet. However, he proposed something called a "gravity tractor".
Another method has been proposed and is being developed by the Keldysh Research Center. Its director and part-time president of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics Anatoly Koroteev suggested using the already known laws of physics to change the asteroid's flight path. Thus, a long flight of a spacecraft near Apophis can prevent its collision with the Earth. “If the spacecraft flies near Apophis, then not only the asteroid will exert its influence on the device, but also the device on it. And although the masses are incommensurable and the impact on the asteroid will be small, if you fly near it for a long time, then it can be diverted from the dangerous trajectory of rendezvous with the Earth, ”Koroteev told Interfax. Thus, the expert noted, in order to divert potentially dangerous object from the Earth, you do not need to act on it by force.
At the same time, Finkelstein encouraged the people of the country by saying that Roskosmos, together with the Ministry of Defense and the Russian Academy of Sciences, is starting to develop an “anti-asteroid” program, in particular, among the nearest plans is the installation of a locator on a 70-meter telescope in Ussuriysk to receive signals reflected by space bodies. “The Tunguska meteorite showed that the possibility of a collision between the Earth and astronomical bodies is not a fantasy of scientists, it is a reality,” he said. At the same time, the scientist did not mention that just the fact of the fall of the Tunguska meteorite - like its nature, its identification as a meteorite body itself - is still being questioned, and scientists around the world have not come to a consensus about what exactly happened in 1908 year.
Meanwhile, the Lavochkin NPO is developing a spacecraft to study Apophis According to the director of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician Lev Zeleny, in 2029 the asteroid's trajectory will pass quite close to the Earth, and it is a sin not to use it for research purposes. In order to prevent a collision, further study of the asteroid is necessary. NPO named after Lavochkin is developing an apparatus. By the way, the press secretary of the Main Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences in St. Petersburg, Sergei Smirnov, claims that the first approach to the Earth will occur in 2012, and therefore, perhaps, it is necessary to hurry up with the studies of the cosmic body.
The threat is worse
Shustov does not tire of intimidating citizens, and in his speech at the Roskosmos at a meeting of the conference of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics named after Tsiolkovsky, he said that a thousand asteroids ranging in size from 100 meters to several kilometers potentially threaten the Earth. “About 7,000 near-Earth objects have been found, of which 1,000 to 1,200 are potentially dangerous. Of these, about 150 bodies are from 1 km in size, and about a thousand bodies are from 100 m to 1 km,” Shustov specified.According to him, almost all kilometer bodies have been discovered and are constantly observed as part of NASA's Space Guard program. He explained that after the collision of the Earth with a 10-kilometer cosmic body, “all life on the planet can die, and civilization for sure.” But asteroids of this size fall to Earth once every tens of millions of years.
“Within the limits of the existence of human civilization or human life smaller bodies from 100 meters are more dangerous. Their danger is explained simply: they often fall. We need to make an inventory of them, monitor them, and prepare for the consequences of a collision with such bodies,” said the head of the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
On the other hand, it was the fall of the asteroid that allowed the emergence of human civilization, Shustov said. “You know the most popular hypothesis about the extinction of dinosaurs, which says that a body measuring 10 km hit the Yucatan Peninsula and led to the extinction of 80% of all life on the planet. At that time, mammals occupied a subordinate position to dinosaurs, but dinosaurs, being cold-blooded, could not withstand the consequences of the collision, and mammals, including humans, entered a promising evolutionary branch. Here you can say thank you to the asteroid, ”the scientist said.
The exact time of a possible Apocalypse is already known to the second. Friday, April 13, 2029 at 4.36 am GMT. Concealing the energy of 65 thousand atomic bombs Apophis asteroid with a mass of 50 million tons and a diameter of 320 meters will cross the orbit of the Moon and rush towards the Earth at a speed of 45 thousand kilometers per hour.
Russian astronomers have calculated the date of a possible collision of the asteroid Apophis with the Earth, but they consider the probability of this to be negligible ( but it is there, and who canceled the silence of the truth so that there was no panic ), said Professor of the Department of Celestial Mechanics of St. Petersburg State University Leonid Sokolov, speaking at the Royal Academic Readings on astronautics.
"April 13 ( and it's Friday ) 2029 Apophis will approach the Earth at a distance of 37-38 thousand kilometers. Its possible impact with the Earth may occur on April 13, 2036," Sokolov said. According to him, other scientists, in particular employees of the Institute of Applied Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believe that the probability of Apophis impacting the Earth in 2036 is negligible.
According to the calculations of the American space agency NASA, which Sokolov cited in the report, 11 collisions with the Earth are possible in the 21st century, 4 of which should occur before 2050 ( and this applies to us ).
"After the close approach of Apophis to the Earth in 2036, it is possible for it to move to various resonant orbits, including rendezvous orbits (with the Earth), but it does not mean that the asteroid will collide with the Earth in 2036, it can disperse into particles, and their collision with the Earth can happen in the coming years," Sokolov noted.
"Our task is to consider various alternatives, develop scenarios and appropriate actions depending on the results of future observations of Apophis," Sokolov added.
Apophis - one of the most dangerous asteroids, was discovered by scientists in June 2004. The diameter of the asteroid is 270 meters. If it even falls into the ocean, the funnel will be 8 km in diameter and 2-3 km deep. A wave 20 meters high will hit America.
With updated information, NASA scientists recalculated the orbit of motion for the asteroid Apophis. The newly calculated trajectory significantly reduces the likelihood of a dangerous collision with the Earth in 2036. The new data points to the probability of a meeting of the Earth on April 13, 2036 with the asteroid Apophis, but the probability of a collision has decreased from 1:45,000 to approximately 1:4,000,000.
Initially, the chances of Apophis approaching and colliding with the Earth were estimated at 2.7% in 2029. However, the record distance at which the asteroid Apophis will approach the Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029 is expected to be about 25,000 km.
According to preliminary estimates, after the impact of the asteroid Apophis on the surface earth happen A 200-megaton explosion that could create a global tsunami with waves nearly 12 meters high that will sweep everything in its path up to 50 kilometers inland.
Friday, April 13, 2029 This day threatens to be fatal for the entire planet Earth. At 4:36 GMT, the asteroid Apophis 99942 with a mass of 50 million tons and a diameter of 320 m will cross the orbit of the Moon and rush towards the Earth at a speed of 45,000 km/h. A huge, pockmarked block will harbor the energy of 65,000 Hiroshima bombs - this is more than enough to wipe out a small country from the face of the Earth or shake a tsunami a couple of hundred meters high.
The name of this asteroid speaks for itself - that was the name of the ancient Egyptian god of darkness and destruction, but there is still a chance that he will not be able to fulfill his fateful destiny. Scientists are 99.7% sure that a boulder will fly past the Earth at a distance of 30-33 thousand kilometers. In astronomical terms, this is something like a flea jump, no more than a flight from New York to Melbourne and back, and much smaller than the diameters of the orbits of many geostationary communications satellites. After dusk, the population of Europe, Africa and Western Asia will be able to observe a celestial object similar to a medium-sized star for a couple of hours, crossing the region of the sky where the constellation Cancer is located. Apophis will be the first asteroid in the history of mankind that we will be able to clearly see with the naked eye. And then it will disappear - it will simply melt into the black expanses of space.
Maybe it will pass. But scientists have calculated: if Apophis is exactly 30,404.5 km from our planet, he should fall into the gravitational "keyhole". A strip of space about 1 km wide, a hole comparable in size to the diameter of the asteroid itself, is a trap where the Earth's gravity is able to turn the flight of Apophis in a dangerous direction, so that our planet will literally be in the crosshairs of the sight at the time of the next visit of this asteroid, which will take place exactly in 7 years - April 13, 2036.
The results of radar and optical tracking of Apophis, when it once again flew past our planet last summer, made it possible to calculate the probability of it hitting the "keyhole". In numerical terms, this chance is 1:45,000! "It's not an easy task to realistically assess a hazard with a very low probability of an event," says Michael de Kay of the Clearinghouse and Hazard Assessment Center at Carnegie Mellon University. “Some believe that since the danger is unlikely, then it’s not worth even thinking about it, while others, bearing in mind the seriousness of a possible catastrophe, believe that even the smallest probability of such an event is unacceptable.”
Former astronaut Rusty Schweikart has a lot to say about objects flying in outer space - once, having climbed out of his ship during the Apollo 9 flight in 1969, he himself was such an object. In 2001, Schweikart co-founded the B612 Foundation and is now using it to put pressure on NASA to do something about Apophis as soon as possible. “If we miss the opportunity that has been given to us,” he says, “it will be criminal negligence.”
Let's say that in 2029 the situation will not be the best. Then, if we do not want the asteroid to crash into the Earth in 2036, we must deal with it on approach and try to move it to the side by tens of thousands of kilometers. Forget about the great technological advances we see in Hollywood movies - in fact, this task far exceeds the current capabilities of mankind. Take, for example, the ingenious method proposed in the famous "Armageddon", which was released in 1998 - to drill a hole a quarter of a kilometer deep in an asteroid and detonate a nuclear charge right inside. So - technically, this is no easier to implement than time travel. In a real situation, when April 13, 2029 approaches, we will only have to calculate the place where the meteorite fell and begin the evacuation of the population from the doomed region.
According to preliminary estimates, the site of the fall of Apophis falls on a 50 km wide strip that runs through Russia, the Pacific Ocean, Central America and goes further into the Atlantic. The cities of Managua (Nicaragua), San José (Costa Rica) and Caracas (Venezuela) are located exactly on this strip, so they are in danger of a direct hit and total destruction. However, the most likely place of impact is a point in the ocean several thousand kilometers from the western coast of America. If Apophis falls into the ocean, a funnel 2.7 km deep and about 8 km in diameter will form in this place, from which tsunami waves will run in all directions. As a result, say, the coast of Florida will be hit by twenty-meter waves, which will bombard the mainland for an hour.
However, it is still too early to think about evacuation. After 2029, we will no longer be able to avoid a collision, but long before the fateful moment we can slightly knock Apophis off course - just enough so that he does not fall into the "keyhole". According to NASA calculations, a simple “blank” weighing one ton, the so-called kinetic impactor, which should hit the asteroid at a speed of 8000 km / h, will fit for this. A similar mission has already been performed by NASA's Deep Impact space probe (by the way, its name is associated with another 1998 Hollywood blockbuster). In 2005, at the behest of its creators, this apparatus crashed into the nucleus of the Tempel 1 comet, and thus information was obtained about the structure of the surface of this cosmic body. Another solution is also possible, when a spacecraft with an ion propulsor, playing the role of a "gravitational tractor", will hover over Apophis, and its - albeit negligible - force of gravity will slightly shift the asteroid from the fatal course.
In 2005, Schweickart urged NASA officials to plan a rescue mission to install a radio transmitter on Apophis. The data regularly obtained from this instrument would confirm the forecasts of the development of the situation. With a favorable forecast (if the asteroid flies past the “keyhole” in 2029), earthly inhabitants could breathe a sigh of relief. In the event of a disappointing forecast, we would have had enough time to prepare and send an expedition into space that would be able to divert the danger threatening it from the Earth. According to Schweikart, such a project could take about 12 years to complete, but it is desirable to complete all rescue work by 2026 - only then can we hope that the remaining three years will be enough to show positive results from the impact of our planet, barely noticeable on a cosmic scale. rescue ship.
However, NASA still prefers waiting tactics. According to the calculations of Stephen Chesley, who works in Pasadena (California) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) on the topic "Near Earth Object" (Near Earth Project), until 2013 we have every right to not worry about anything. By that time, Apophis will fall into the field of view of the 300-meter radio telescope located in Arecibo (Puerto Rico). According to these data, it will already be possible to make a reliable forecast - whether an asteroid will fall into the “keyhole” in 2029 or it will be carried past. If the worst fears are confirmed, we will have enough time for the expedition with the installation of the transceiver, and for emergency measures to push the asteroid from a dangerous trajectory. “It's too early to fuss,” says Chesley, “but if by 2014 the situation does not resolve itself, then we will start preparing serious expeditions.”
In 1998, the US Congress instructed NASA to search for, record and track all asteroids with a diameter of at least 1 km in near-Earth space. The resulting "Space Security Report" contains a description of 75% of the 1100 alleged objects in existence. (In the course of these searches, Apophis, which did not reach the required size of 750 m, caught the eye of the researchers simply by a lucky chance.) None of the giants included in the "report", fortunately, poses a danger to the Earth. "But in the remaining couple of hundred that we haven't been able to detect yet, anyone could be on approach to our planet," says former astronaut Tom Jones, a NASA asteroid search consultant. In light of the current situation, the aerospace agency intends to expand the search criterion to a diameter of 140 m, that is, to capture in its network and celestial bodies half the size of Apophis, which can nevertheless cause significant damage to our planet. More than 4,000 such asteroids have already been identified, and according to preliminary NASA estimates, there should be at least 100,000 of them.
As the procedure for calculating the 323-day orbit of Apophis showed, predicting the paths along which asteroids move is a troublesome business. Our asteroid was discovered in June 2004 by astronomers at the Kitt Peak Arizona National Observatory. A lot of useful information was obtained by amateur astronomers, and after six months, repeated professional observations and more accurate sighting of the object led to such results that JPL sounded the alarm. JPL's holy of holies, the Sentry asteroid tracking system (a super-powerful computer that calculates the orbits of near-Earth asteroids based on astronomical observations) made predictions that looked more ominous day by day. Already on December 27, 2004, the calculated chances of an expected collision in 2029 reached the level of 2.7% - such figures caused a stir in the narrow world of asteroid hunters. Apophis took an unprecedented 4th step on the Turin scale.
However, the panic quickly subsided. The results of those observations that had previously eluded researchers were entered into the computer, and the system announced a reassuring message: in 2029, Apophis will fly past the Earth, but will miss by the slightest. Everything would be fine, but one unpleasant trifle remained - that very “keyhole”. The tiny size of this gravitational "trap" (only 600 m in diameter) is both a plus and a minus. On the one hand, it will not be so difficult to push Apophis away from such an insignificant goal. If we believe the calculations, then by changing the speed of the asteroid by only 16 cm per hour, that is, by 3.8 m per day, in three years we will shift its orbit by several kilometers. It seems to be nonsense, but quite enough to bypass the keyhole. Such influences are quite within the power of the already described "gravitational tractor" or "kinetic blank". On the other hand, when we are dealing with such a tiny target, it is impossible to accurately predict in which direction Apophis will deviate from the keyhole. Today, predictions of what the orbit will be like by 2029 have an accuracy scale (in space ballistics it is called the "ellipse of errors") of about 3000 km. As new data accumulates, this ellipse should gradually decrease. In order to say with any certainty that Apophis is flying past, it is necessary to reduce the "ellipse" to a size of about 1 km. Lacking the necessary information, the rescue expedition may take the asteroid to the side, or may unintentionally drive it into the well itself.
But is it realistic to achieve the required forecasting accuracy? This task involves not only the installation of a transceiver on the asteroid, but also a mathematical model that is incomparably more complex than the one currently used. The new orbit calculation algorithm should also include seemingly insignificant factors such as solar radiation, terms added to account for relativistic effects, and gravitational influence from other nearby asteroids. In the current model, all these corrections have not yet been taken into account.
And finally, when calculating this orbit, another surprise awaits us - the Yarkovsky effect. This is an additional small but steadily acting force - its manifestation is observed in those cases when an asteroid radiates more heat from one side than from the other. As the asteroid turns away from the Sun, it begins to radiate the heat accumulated in the surface layers into the surrounding space. There is a weak, but still noticeable reactive force acting in the opposite direction to the heat flow. For example, twice as large an asteroid called 6489 Golevka under the influence of this force over the past 15 years has moved away from the calculated orbit by 16 km. No one knows how this effect will affect the trajectory of Apophis over the next 23 years. At the moment, we have no idea either about the speed of its rotation, or about the direction of the axis around which it could rotate. We do not even know its outlines - and yet this information is absolutely necessary in order to calculate the Yarkovsky effect.
If the apophys is really aiming straight for the gravitational keyhole, ground-based observations will not be able to confirm this until at least 2021. It may be too late to take any action by then. Let's see what is at stake (Chesley believes that the fall of such an asteroid should entail losses of $ 400 billion only due to damage to the economic infrastructure), and it will immediately become clear that some steps to protect against an impending catastrophe need to be taken now, without waiting for confirmation that they will eventually be needed. When will we start? Or, if you look from the other side, at what point can you rely on luck and say that the trouble has passed? When are the chances of a successful outcome ten to one? Thousand to one?
When NASA discovers a potentially hazardous asteroid like Apophis, it is not empowered to make decisions about how to proceed. "Rescue planning is not our business," says Chesley. The space agency's first and very timid step in this direction was a kind of working meeting at which possible measures for protection against asteroids were discussed in June 2006.
If these NASA efforts deserve attention, approval, and, most importantly, funding from the US Congress, then the next step will immediately be sending a reconnaissance expedition to Apophis. Schweikart notes that even if the planned "gravity tractor" equipped with a control transceiver is "covered in gold from nose to tail," its launch is unlikely to cost more than a quarter of a billion. By the way, the release of space fantasy "Armageddon" and "Collision with the abyss" cost the same amount. If, in the name of protecting our planet, Hollywood was not stingy to lay out such money, then is it really not possible for the US Congress to find it? (Author: David Noland)
In general, somewhere in China, giant ships are definitely already being built and tickets are already on sale
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