Social forecasting. * a list of federal targeted programs scheduled for funding from the federal budget for the coming year
INTRODUCTION
When developing forecasts, specialists often encounter difficulties associated with the lack of certainty in the terminology of this relatively new area of scientific research.
The future is sought to be foreseen, predicted, anticipated, foreseen, predicted, etc. But the future can also be planned, programmed, designed. In relation to the future, you can set goals and make decisions. Sometimes some of these concepts are used as synonyms, sometimes a different meaning is put into each of them. This situation greatly complicates the development of prognosis and gives rise to fruitless discussions on issues of terminology.
In 1975, the Committee for Scientific and Technical Terminology of the USSR Academy of Sciences prepared a draft terminology for the general concepts of forecasting, as well as the object and apparatus of forecasting. The draft was circulated for wide discussion in organizations involved in the problems of forecasting, finalized taking into account the comments and published in 1978 in the 92nd edition of the collections of terms recommended for use in scientific and technical literature, information, educational process, standards and documentation. In this section, an attempt is made to bring into a system some of the terms (some of them are beyond the scope of the specified dictionary), which denote the initial concepts of prognostication and without which it is difficult to perceive the subsequent presentation (the dictionary is given in the Appendix).
Foresight and forecasting. It seems necessary to introduce a general concept that unites all varieties of obtaining information about the future - foresight, which is divided into scientific and non-scientific (intuitive, everyday, religious, etc.). Scientific foresight is based on knowledge of the laws governing the development of nature, society, and thought; the intuitive is based on the premonitions of a person, the ordinary is based on the so-called worldly experience, related analogies, signs, etc .; religious - on the belief in supernatural forces that predetermine the future. There are a lot of superstitions about this.
Sometimes the concept of foresight refers to information not only about the future, but also about the present, and even about the past. This happens when still unknown, unknown phenomena of the past and present are approached in order to obtain scientific knowledge about them as if they relate to the future. Examples include estimates of mineral deposits (presentist foresight), mental reconstruction of ancient sites using the tools of scientific foresight (reconstructive foresight), estimating retrospective from the present to the past or from the less distant to the more distant past (reverse foresight), estimating the retrospective from the past to present or from a more distant to a less distant past, in particular - for testing methods of foresight (simulation foresight).
Foresight affects two interconnected sets of forms of its concretization: relating to the category of foresight itself - predictive (descriptive, or descriptive) and associated with it, relating to the category of management - pre-indicative (prescriptive, or prescriptive). Prediction implies a description of possible or desirable prospects, states, solutions to the problems of the future. Foretelling is connected with the actual solution of these problems, with the use of information about the future for the purposeful activity of the individual and society. Prediction results in the forms of premonition, anticipation, foresight, forecasting. Premonition (simple anticipation) contains information about the future at the level of intuition - the subconscious. Sometimes this concept is extended to the entire area of the simplest advanced reflection as a property of any organism. Foresight (complex anticipation) carries information about the future based on life experience, more or less correct guesses about the future, not based on special scientific research. Sometimes this concept is extended to the entire area of complex advanced reflection, which is a property of the highest form of the movement of matter - thinking. Finally, forecasting (which is often used in the previous meanings) should mean, with this approach, a special scientific study, the subject of which is the prospects for the development of a phenomenon.
Preindication appears in the forms of goal-setting, planning, programming, design, and current management decisions. Goal-setting is the establishment of an ideally expected result of an activity. Planning is a projection into the future of human activity in order to achieve a predetermined goal with certain means, the transformation of information about the future into directives for purposeful activity. Programming in this series of concepts means establishing the main provisions, which are then deployed in planning, or the sequence of specific measures for the implementation of plans. Design is the creation of specific images of the future, specific details of the developed programs. Management as a whole, as it were, integrates the four listed concepts, since each of them is based on the same element - a solution. But decisions in the field of management do not necessarily have a planned, program, project character. Many of them (the so-called organizational, as well as actually managerial) are, as it were, the last step in the concretization of management.
These terms can also be defined as the processes of developing forecasts, goals, plans, programs, projects, and organizational decisions. From this point of view, a forecast is defined as a probabilistic scientifically based judgment about the prospects, possible states of a particular phenomenon in the future and (or) about alternative ways and timing of their implementation. The goal is a decision regarding the intended result of the activity being undertaken. Plan - a decision on a system of measures that provides for the order, sequence, timing and means of their implementation. A program is a decision regarding a set of measures necessary for the implementation of scientific, technical, social, socio-economic and other problems or some of their aspects. The program can be a pre-plan decision, as well as specify a certain aspect of the plan. A project is a decision regarding a specific activity, structure, etc., necessary for the implementation of one or another aspect of the program. Finally, the actual decision in this series of concepts is an ideally assumed action to achieve the goal.
Religious foresight has its own forms of concretization. So, “prediction” takes the form of “revelation”, divination (prophecy), fortune-telling, and “foretelling” takes the form of “predestination”, sorcery, spells, requests for prayer, etc. But all this (as well as forms of concretization of intuitive and everyday foresight ) is a special topic.
It is important to emphasize that prediction and prediction are closely related. Without taking this connection into account, it is impossible to understand the essence of forecasting, its actual relationship with management. The volitional principle can prevail in pre-instruction, and then the corresponding goals, plans, programs, projects, decisions in general turn out to be voluntaristic, subjectivistic, arbitrary (with an increased risk of non-optimality, failure). In this regard, it is desirable to predominate in them an objective, research principle, so that they are scientifically sound, with an increased level of expected effectiveness of decisions made.
The most important methods of scientific substantiation of predictions - description (analysis), explanation (diagnosis) and prediction (forecast) - constitute the three main functions of each scientific discipline. The forecast is not only a tool for such justification. However, its practical significance is reduced precisely to the possibility of increasing the efficiency of decisions made with its help. Only because of this, forecasting over the past decades has assumed an unprecedented scale, began to play important role in management processes.
Forecasting is not limited to trying to predict the details of the future (although in some cases this is essential). The forecaster proceeds from the dialectical determination of the phenomena of the future, from the fact that necessity makes its way through chances, that a probabilistic approach is needed to the phenomena of the future, taking into account a wide range of possible options. Only with this approach, forecasting can be effectively used to select the most probable or most desirable, optimal option when justifying a goal, plan, program, project, or decision in general.
Forecasts should precede plans, contain an assessment of the progress, consequences of the implementation (or failure to implement) plans, cover everything that cannot be planned, resolved. They can cover, in principle, any period of time. Forecast and plan differ in the way they handle information about the future. A probabilistic description of what is possible or desirable is a prediction. A directive decision regarding measures to achieve the possible, desirable is a plan. Forecast and plan can be developed independently of each other. But in order for the plan to be effective, optimal, it must be preceded by a forecast, as continuous as possible, which allows scientifically substantiating this and subsequent plans.
TYPOLOGY OF FORECASTS
Typology of forecasts can be built according to various criteria depending on the goals, objectives, objects, subjects, problems, nature, lead time, methods, organization of forecasting, etc. The problem-target criterion is fundamental: what is the forecast for? Accordingly, two types of forecasts are distinguished: exploratory (they were previously called research, exploration, trend, genetic, etc.) and normative (they were called program, target).
Search forecast- determination of possible states of the phenomenon in the future. This refers to the conditional continuation into the future of the trends in the development of the phenomenon under study in the past and present, abstracting from possible decisions, actions on the basis of which can radically change the trends, cause in some cases the self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast. This prediction answers the question: What is most likely to happen if current trends continue?
Normative forecast- definition of ways and terms of achievement of possible states of the phenomenon accepted as the purpose. This refers to predicting the achievement of desired states on the basis of predetermined norms, ideals, incentives, and goals. This prediction answers the question: what are the ways to achieve what you want?
The search forecast is built on a certain scale (field, spectrum) of possibilities, on which the degree of probability of the predicted phenomenon is then established. With normative forecasting, the same probability distribution occurs, but in the reverse order: from a given state to observed trends. Normative forecasting is in some respects very similar to normative planning, programming, or project development. But the latter imply a directive establishment of measures for the implementation of certain norms, while the former is a stochastic (probabilistic) description of possible, alternative ways to achieve these norms.
Normative forecasting not only does not exclude normative developments in the field of management, but is also their prerequisite, helping to develop recommendations for increasing the level of objectivity and, consequently, the effectiveness of decisions. This circumstance prompted to identify the specifics of forecasts serving, respectively, goal-setting, planning, programming, design, and directly the organization of management. As a result, according to the criterion of correlation with various forms of concretization of management, some experts distinguish a number of subtypes of forecasts (exploratory and normative).
Target Forecast actually desired states answers the question: what is desirable and why? In this case, on a certain scale (field, spectrum) the possibilities of a purely evaluative function are built, i.e. preference distribution functions: undesirable - less desirable - more desirable - most desirable - optimal (with a compromise on several criteria). Orientation - assistance in optimizing the goal-setting process.
Planned forecast(plan-forecast) of the progress (or non-fulfillment) of plans is essentially the development of search and regulatory forecast information for the selection of the most appropriate planning standards, tasks, directives with the identification of undesirable alternatives to be eliminated and with a thorough clarification of the direct and remote, indirect consequences of the adopted planned decisions. This prediction answers the question: how, in what direction should planning be oriented in order to more effectively achieve the set goals?
Program forecast possible ways, measures and conditions for achieving the expected desired state of the predicted phenomenon answers the question: What exactly is needed to achieve what you want? To answer this question, both search and normative predictive developments are important. The former identify the problems that need to be solved in order to implement the program, the latter determine the conditions for implementation. Program forecasting should formulate a hypothesis about possible mutual influences various factors, indicate the hypothetical timing and sequence of achieving intermediate goals on the way to the main one. Thus, as it were, the selection of possibilities for the development of the object of study, begun by planned forecasting, is completed.
Project forecast specific images of this or that phenomenon in the future, under the assumption of a number of conditions that are still missing, answers the question: how (specifically) is this possible, what might it look like? A combination of search and regulatory developments is also important here. Design forecasts (they are also called forecast projects, design forecasts, etc.) are designed to help select the best options for long-term design, on the basis of which real, current design should then be deployed.
Organizational forecast current decisions (in relation to the sphere of management) to achieve the intended desired state of the phenomenon, the set goals answers the question: in what direction should decisions be oriented in order to achieve the goal? Comparison of the results of search and regulatory developments should cover the entire range of organizational measures, thereby increasing the overall level of management.
According to the lead period - the period of time for which the forecast is calculated - operational (current), short-, medium-, long- and long-term (super-long-term) forecasts are distinguished. Operational, as a rule, is designed for the future, during which no significant changes in the object of study are expected - neither quantitative nor qualitative. Short-term - for the prospect of only quantitative changes, long-term - not only quantitative, but mostly qualitative. The medium-term covers the prospect between the short and long-term with a predominance of quantitative changes over qualitative ones, the long-term (super-long-term) - the prospect when such significant qualitative changes are expected that in essence we can only talk about the most general prospects for the development of nature and society.
Operational forecasts contain, as a rule, detailed-quantitative assessments, short-term - general quantitative, medium-term - quantitative-qualitative, long-term - qualitative-quantitative and long-term - general qualitative assessments.
The temporal gradation of forecasts is relative and depends on the nature and purpose of the given forecast. In some scientific and technical forecasts, the lead period, even in long-term forecasts, can be measured in days, and in geology or cosmology - in millions of years. In socio-economic forecasts, in accordance with national economic plans and in accordance with the nature and pace of development of the forecasted phenomena, the following time scale is empirically established: operational forecasts - up to one year, short-term - from one to five years, medium-term - for five to ten years, long-term - for a period of up to fifteen to twenty years, long-term - beyond long-term.
However, even here there are differences related to the characteristics of individual branches of socio-economic forecasting. Thus, in the sphere of politics, the range between the short and long term narrows to the limits of the next decade, in urban planning it stretches for a whole century (because in the coming decades most of objects have already been designed and only operational forecasting is possible), in the economy it adapts to the ranges of national economic plans, etc.
According to the object of study, natural science, scientific-technical and social science (social in the broad sense of the term) forecasts are distinguished. In natural science forecasts, the relationship between prediction and prediction is insignificant, close to or practically equal to zero due to the impossibility of controlling the object, so here, in principle, only exploratory forecasting is possible with an orientation towards the most accurate unconditional prediction of the future state of the phenomenon. In social science forecasts, this relationship is so significant that it can give the effect of self-fulfillment or, on the contrary, self-destruction of forecasts by people's actions based on goals, plans, programs, projects, and decisions in general (including those made taking into account the forecasts made). In this regard, a combination of search and regulatory developments is necessary here, i.e. conditional predictions with a focus on improving management efficiency. Scientific and technical forecasts occupy, as it were, an intermediate position in this respect.
natural science predictions are divided into the following areas:
1) meteorological (weather, air currents and other atmospheric phenomena);
2) hydrological (sea waves, water runoff regime, floods, tsunamis, storms, freezing and opening of the water area, other hydrospheric phenomena);
3) geological (mineral deposits, earthquakes, avalanches and other lithospheric phenomena);
4) biological, including phenological and agricultural (productivity, morbidity and other phenomena in the flora and fauna, in general in the biosphere);
5) medical and biological (now mainly human diseases);
6) cosmological (state and motion celestial bodies, gases, radiation, all phenomena of the cosmossphere);
7) physical and chemical predictions of the phenomena of the microworld.
Scientific and technical forecasts in a narrow sense, or, as they are also called, engineering, cover the prospects for the state of materials and the mode of operation of mechanisms, machines, devices, electronic equipment, and all phenomena of the technosphere. In a broad sense - in the sense of the prospects for the development of scientific and technological progress - they cover the promising problems of the development of science, its structure, the comparative effectiveness of various areas of research, further development scientific personnel and institutions, as well as promising problems of technology (the “man-machine” system), more precisely, the controlled aspects of scientific and technological progress in industry, construction, urban and agriculture, in transport and communications, including the information system.
Social science forecasts divided into areas:
1) socio-medical (health care, including physical culture and sports);
2) socio-geographical (prospects for further development of the earth's surface, including the World Ocean);
3) socio-ecological (the prospect of maintaining a balance between the state of the natural environment and the life of society);
4) socio-space (the prospect of space exploration);
5) economic (prospects for the development of the national economy, economic relations in general);
6) sociological, or social in the narrow sense (perspective for the development of social relations);
7) psychological (personality, its behavior, activities);
8) demographic (growth, age and sex structure, population migration);
9) philological and ethnographic, or linguistic and ethnological (development of language, writing, personal names, national traditions, mores, customs);
10) architectural and urban planning (social aspects of settlement, development of the city and village, housing, generally inhabited environment);
11) educational and pedagogical (upbringing and training, development of personnel and institutions in the field of public education - from nurseries and kindergartens to universities and graduate schools, including subsystems for advanced training and retraining of personnel; adult self-education, parental education, additional education, etc.);
12) cultural and aesthetic (material and technical base of art, literature, all culture; artistic information, development of personnel and cultural institutions - book, magazine, newspaper business, radio and television, cinema and theater, museums and cultural parks, clubs and libraries, cultural monuments, etc.);
13) state-legal, or legal (development of the state and legislation, law and criminology, legal relations in general);
14) internal political (internal policy of one's own and another country);
15) foreign policy (foreign policy of one's own and another country, international relations in general);
16) military (military-technical, military-economic, military-political, military-strategic, military-tactical, military-organizational forecasts).
Often, scientific and technical forecasts are also called natural science forecasts, and social science forecasts are often called socio-economic forecasts, and all forecasts of this group, except economic ones, are in this case called social forecasts. Philosophical and theoretical-methodological problems of forecasting constitute a special area.
It should be noted that there is no blank wall between natural and social science predictions, since theoretically the relationship between prediction and prediction is never zero. A person begins to influence the weather (dispersion of fogs, hail clouds), productivity (production of fertilizers), etc. It is likely that over time he will learn to control the weather, regulate sea disturbances, prevent earthquakes, obtain predetermined crops, program physiological and psychological development man, change the orbits of celestial bodies, etc. Then the difference between these types of forecasts will gradually disappear altogether.
At the same time, it is not difficult to notice a well-known connection between forecasts of both types. This is natural, since the links between the natural, technical and social sciences are becoming ever closer. The typology of forecasts is not limited to the listed criteria and named orders for each type. In principle, there are much more criteria, and for each of them, subtypes of the third, fourth, etc. can be distinguished. order. However, the development of a "forecast type tree" is still awaiting special study.
Forecasting and forecasting. The listed subtypes of forecasts according to the criterion of the object of study represent a well-known abstraction. In practice, none of them exists in a “pure” form, since they are interconnected and form complex complexes. Usually, a forecast is developed within a certain grouping of forecasts, depending on the purpose of the study (target grouping of forecasts).
It would be difficult, for example, to give a forecast of the development of science or technology without having data from related industries (economy, demography, culture, etc.). In the same way, it is difficult to determine the prospects for the development of an economy or culture without knowing the prospects for the development of science, technology, population, urban planning, public education, and so on.
For each forecast, it is desirable to involve as much data as possible in related areas. Only a few of the most important for the purpose of the study are currently used. As experience shows, other things being equal, the degree of forecast reliability is always directly proportional to the degree of completeness of the material used in other industries, the degree of completeness of the target group.
The target group is composed of the leading (profile) and auxiliary (background) directions. In principle, according to the purpose of the study, any direction can become a leader. In practice, among the target groupings, one of the most developed is singled out - national economic forecasting, where economic and social forecasting are leading, and scientific, technical and demographic forecasting are auxiliary (other areas still play an insignificant role).
The need to form target groupings of forecasts is dictated by the requirements of forecasting practice. Not a single scientific team is able to develop forecasts of sufficiently high reliability for all branches of forecasting. The target group helps to mobilize the forces of specialists in various fields of scientific knowledge and organize them in an optimal way to develop a forecast.
The leading direction of the target group forms the forecast profile, which is the subject of the study. Auxiliary directions make up the forecast background - a set of conditions external to the object of forecasting that are essential for solving the forecast problem. Unlike profile data, background data are usually not the subject of research by one research team (since this is practically impossible and impractical): they are either obtained ready-made by order from other, sufficiently competent scientific institutions, or they are drawn from the available scientific literature, or they are conditionally postulated. with appropriate reservations regarding the degree of their reliability. The standard forecast background is divided into scientific and technical, demographic, economic, sociological, sociocultural, organizational and political, international. Usually, several subdivisions are selected depending on the purpose and objectives of developing a forecast.
The difference between the forecasting industry and the target grouping of forecasts is fundamental. Ignoring it leads to fruitless disputes, for example, on the question of whether demographic or scientific and technical forecasting is an independent branch or only a sub-branch of economic forecasting, which is sometimes considered as a synonym for national economic forecasting.
The set of target groupings of forecasts is a complex of forecasts in existing sciences, and not some new science that replaces existing ones, as this would lead to an artificial break in the study of trends and prospects for the development of natural and social phenomena studied by each science, to a break in the unity of integral basic functions each science - descriptions, explanations and predictions.
The scientific discipline about the patterns of development of forecasts - forecasting has as its subject the study of the laws and methods of forecasting. Its tasks are the development of relevant problems of epistemology and the logic of theoretical prognostic research, the scientific principles of the typology of forecasts, the classification of forecasting methods, the distinction between such interrelated concepts as hypothesis and forecast, forecast and law, analysis and forecast, forecast and plan, solution, etc. One of the most important tasks of forecasting is the development of special methodological problems of forecasting in order to increase the validity of forecasts.
In the structure of prognostics, private forecasting theories with “double subordination” should be developed: along the line of general prognostication and along the line of the corresponding scientific discipline within the framework of natural science or social science (scientific and technical, economic, sociological, political, etc. prognostication). True, prognostics is still at the initial stages of development, when it is somewhat premature to talk about the details of its “budding”. This is apparently a matter for the future. But in all cases, it is precisely the theory of forecasting that is meant and should be meant, and not the isolation of some part of the problems of existing scientific disciplines into a kind of "science about the future."
This is important to emphasize, because over the past half century there has been no shortage of speculation on the specificity of the problem of forecasting. This is especially true for the ambiguous term "futurology", which currently has the following meanings:
1) "philosophy of the future", which opposes all social teachings of the past and present, which the German philosopher of the first half of the 20th century. K. Mannheim divided into "ideology" and "utopia" (the teachings, respectively, defended or rejected the dominant social system). The term "futurology" in this sense was proposed in 1943 by a German sociologist who emigrated to the United States - O. Flechtheim. This concept did not catch on;
2) "science of the future", "history of the future", the subject of study of which should be the prospects for the development of all phenomena - primarily social ones - in contrast to other disciplines limited to studies of the past and present. The term in this sense became widespread in the West in the early 1960s in connection with the “boom of forecasts” that then unfolded (the appearance of special institutions engaged in the development of forecasts of a scientific, technical and socio-economic nature). However, in the second half of the 60s, the inconsistency of attempts to single out the “history of the future” by analogy with the “history of the past” was revealed, and by the beginning of the 70s, the term “futurology” in this sense had almost completely ceased to be used.
The analogy between the study of the past and the future turned out to be wrong. History studies past events of special historical interest with the help of special scientific tools that are different from the methods of studying observed phenomena. This makes it justified to single out the historical sciences as a separate group. Therefore, the appearance of the history of the theater, physics, agriculture, humanity as a whole is natural.
Meanwhile, the phenomena of the present and the future are of interrelated topical interest. The scientific toolkit for studying the phenomena of the future, although it has a certain specificity, is closely connected with the toolkit for studying the observed phenomena. We have already mentioned above the unity of description, explanation and prediction as the main functions of each science. So far, the predictive function in most scientific disciplines is less developed than the explanatory and descriptive. But this does not undermine the principle that the purpose of every science, if it is really a science, is to describe, explain, and predict.
That is why the "science of the future" is deprived of the subject of study, which actually belongs to many existing disciplines. The realization of this circumstance led to the discrediting of this meaning of the term "futurology";
3) a complex of social forecasting as a closely interconnected set of prognostic functions of the existing social sciences and prognostication as a science of the laws of forecasting. In this sense, futurology as "interdisciplinary research", "metascience" received significant distribution in the West by the end of the 60s. However, the vagueness of the term and the frequent confusion of this meaning with the two previous ones caused it to be replaced by other terms from the beginning of the 70s (prognostics, futurist, futuristics, "study of the future", etc.). To date, the latter term, as a synonym for the complex of social forecasting and social forecasting, is dominant in the West;
4) a synonym for the complex of social forecasting - in contrast to forecasting. In this sense, the term is rarely used;
5) a synonym for prognostics - in contrast to the complex of social forecasting. In this sense, the term is also rarely used;
6) in a narrow sense, during the second half of the 20th century, the concepts of the future society, opposing scientific communism (such as the theory of "post-industrial society", etc.);
7) in a broad sense - all modern publications (both scientific and journalistic) about the prospects for the development of human society. True, more and more often, not only modern or only non-Marxist, but more often all "literature about the future" is meant.
In the Soviet Union, the term "futurology" in its 3rd meaning (synonymous with the complex of social forecasting and forecasting) was sometimes used in journalism or in popular science literature. In a special scientific literature this term was usually used only in the 6th and 7th meanings, as a rule, with the epithet "bourgeois".
Forecasting toolkit. Forecasting is based on three complementary sources of information about the future:
Assessment of the development prospects, the future state of the predicted phenomenon based on experience, most often by analogy with fairly well-known similar phenomena and processes;
Conditional continuation into the future (extrapolation) of trends, the patterns of development of which in the past and present are quite well known;
A model of the future state of a particular phenomenon, process, built in accordance with the expected or desirable changes in a number of conditions, the development prospects of which are quite well known.
Accordingly, there are three complementary ways to develop forecasts:
Questioning (interviewing, survey) - a survey of the population, experts in order to streamline, objectify subjective assessments of a predictive nature. Peer review is especially important. Polls of the population in the practice of forecasting are still relatively rarely used;
Extrapolation and interpolation (detection of an intermediate value between two known moments of the process) - construction of time series of the development of indicators of the predicted phenomenon over the periods of the basis of the forecast in the past and the prediction of the forecast in the future (retrospection and prospection of forecast developments);
Modeling - the construction of search and normative models, taking into account the probable or desired change in the predicted phenomenon for the forecast lead period, based on the available direct or indirect data on the scale and direction of changes. The most efficient predictive model is a system of equations. However, all possible types of models in the broad sense of the term matter: scenarios, simulations, graphs, matrices, collections of indicators, graphic images, etc.
The above division of forecasting methods is conditional, because in practice, as already mentioned, these methods overlap and complement each other. A predictive estimate necessarily includes elements of extrapolation and modeling. The extrapolation process is impossible without elements of evaluation and modeling. Modeling involves preliminary estimation and extrapolation. This circumstance for a long time made it difficult to adequately classify forecasting methods. The development of the latter was also hampered by the lack of certainty of the concepts of reception, procedure, method, technique, method, system, forecasting methodology, which were often used one instead of the other or figured as phenomena of the same order, despite the significant qualitative difference between them. Per last years Considerable work has been done in this regard, which has made it possible to create a reliable theoretical basis for the classification of forecasting methods. As a result, the given series of concepts lined up in the following logical system.
Reception of forecasting - a specific form of theoretical or practical approach to developing a forecast, one or more mathematical or logical operations aimed at obtaining a specific result in the process of developing a forecast. Procedure - a number of techniques that ensure the performance of a certain set of operations. Method - a complex technique, an ordered set of simple techniques aimed at developing a forecast as a whole. Methodology - an ordered set of techniques, procedures, operations, research rules based on one or more often a specific combination of several methods. Methodology forecasting - a field of knowledge about methods, methods, systems of forecasting. Prediction Method- obtaining and processing information about the future based on homogeneous methods for developing a forecast. Forecasting system("predictive system") - an ordered set of techniques, technical means, designed to predict complex phenomena or processes. Experience shows that none of the above methods (and even more so methods), taken by itself, can not provide a significant degree of reliability, accuracy, range of the forecast. But in certain combinations they are highly effective.
The general logical sequence of the most important operations for developing a forecast is reduced to the following main stages:
1. Pre-forecast orientation (research program). Refinement of the task for the forecast: nature, scale, object, periods of foundation and lead, etc. Formulation of goals and objectives, subject, problem and working hypotheses, determination of methods, structure and organization of the study.
2. Construction of the initial (basic) model of the predicted object by the methods of system analysis. To refine the model, a survey of the population and experts is possible.
3. Collection of forecast background data by the methods mentioned above.
4. Construction of time series of indicators - the basis of the core of future predictive models by extrapolation methods, it is possible to generalize this material in the form of predictive pre-model scenarios.
5. Construction of a series of hypothetical (preliminary) exploratory models of the predicted object using the methods of exploratory analysis of profile and background indicators with specification of the minimum, maximum and most probable values.
6. Construction of a series of hypothetical normative models of the predicted object by the methods of normative analysis with specification of the values of the absolute (i.e., not limited by the forecast background) and relative (i.e., tied to this framework) optimum according to predetermined criteria in accordance with specified norms, ideals, goals.
7. Assessment of the reliability and accuracy, as well as the validity (verification) of the forecast - the refinement of hypothetical models, usually by interviewing experts.
8. Development of recommendations for decisions in the field of management based on a comparison of search and regulatory models. To clarify the recommendations, another survey of the population and experts is possible. Sometimes (albeit still rarely), a series of post-probabilistic predictive scenario models are built, taking into account the possible consequences of the implementation of the developed recommendations for their further refinement.
9. Expert discussion (examination) of the forecast and recommendations, their revision taking into account the discussion and delivery to the customer.
10. Again, a pre-forecast orientation based on a comparison of the materials of an already developed forecast with new data on the forecast background and a new cycle of research, because forecasting should be as continuous as goal-setting, planning, programming, design, generally management, the increase in the efficiency of which it is intended to serve.
What has been said requires three essential additional remarks:
Firstly, the effectiveness of forecasts (especially social science ones) cannot be reduced only to the degree of their reliability, accuracy, range, although all this is very important; it is equally important to know to what extent this or that forecast helps to increase the validity, objectivity, and effectiveness of decisions developed on its basis;
Secondly, the verification of forecasts has significant features that distinguish it from the verification of analysis or diagnosis data. In forecasting, in addition to absolute verification, i.e. empirical confirmation or denial of the correctness of the hypothesis, there is a relative (preliminary) verification, which allows you to develop scientific research and practically use its result before the possibility of absolute verification. Methods of relative verification are known: this is a verification of the results obtained, but not yet amenable to absolute verification, by control studies.
With regard to the forecast, absolute verification is possible only after the transition of the lead period from the future to the past. But long before that, it is possible and should resort to repeated or parallel studies using a different methodology (for example, to conduct a survey of experts). If the results match, there are grounds for more confidence in considering the degree of reliability of the forecast as high; if not, there is time to find and eliminate errors or shortcomings in the methodology for developing forecasts.
In this regard, it is important to clearly distinguish between the categories of validity and truth (forecast). The validity of scientific information is, in short, the level of the state of knowledge and the quality of scientific research. If new scientific information is based on solid scientific theory, the effectiveness of which in relation to similar objects of research has been proven, if this information is obtained as a result of sufficiently reliable methods, procedures, operations of scientific research (tested at other objects), then it is considered to be fully justified even before it is confirmed by practice.
The criterion of the truth of scientific information, as you know, is practice. However, practice cannot be understood only as a purely empirical experience of today. A broader understanding of practice includes, first of all, the socio-historical practice of the development of human society as a whole. Therefore, the problem of the truth of the forecast cannot be limited to the possibility of a "momentary" practical verification, it must be associated with real trends in the development of human society.
Ultimately, as it is clear from the above, any verification of the forecast is not an end in itself. If the forecast has an effect in terms of increasing the scientific level of management, it acts as a full-fledged result of scientific research long before the possibility of absolute verification. In this regard, modern science has enough proven examples in practice.
Improving the efficiency of decisions through the use of predictive information was achieved in the 1960s and 1970s, in fact, at the initial stage of the development of prognostication, when many methods had not yet been theoretically developed or practically insufficiently tested, when many methods were still actually experimental in nature. All this gives grounds for putting forward a completely scientific hypothesis that as forecasting develops and its methods improve, forecasting will have an even more effective impact on the level of goals, plans, programs, projects, organizational decisions than at present.
Thirdly, even a preliminary acquaintance with modern forecasting tools shows that the latter is by no means universal and omnipotent, that it is not able to replace the broader concept of foresight. The peculiarities of the methods for developing a forecast impose fundamental restrictions on the possibilities of forecasting both in the time range (the lead time in socio-economic forecasts in practice is limited, as a rule, to the next few decades) and in the range of research objects (not all phenomena are amenable to predictive estimates). These limitations must be constantly taken into account when specifying tasks for the development of forecasts.
1. The concept of social forecasting.
2. Global problems of our time and ways to solve them.
3. Perspectives social development.
Human activity is fundamentally a transformative activity. A person in his mind not only reflects the world, not only adapts to the surrounding reality, but also transforms the world with his practical actions. At the same time, a person foresees the results of his activity, anticipates the future. People cannot live without presenting to some extent a perspective, a future that gives meaning to the present in its close union with the past.
The problem of forecasting is related to the study of the laws of the material world and the application of this knowledge in practice. The relevance of the forecasting problem is due to the following factors: a) the processes of development of social life in the conditions of scientific and technological progress have become more complicated; b) the drama of the historical situation has intensified: the problems of war and peace, the fight against terrorism, the state environment, energy difficulties, the fight against AIDS and other infectious diseases; c) the volume and scale of forecasting activities, the quantitative and qualitative diversity of forecasting objects have expanded; d) the social, economic, environmental and informational value of forecasts has increased.
Obtaining social forecasts in various spheres of society has great value for a clear answer to the question of the future fate of mankind. To understand the essence of social forecasts, it is necessary to clarify the content of such concepts as "foresight", "prediction" and "forecasting". They fix the ability to see the essential in processes and phenomena before it is discovered in experience, in practice, the ability of the cognizing subject to anticipate the reflection of reality. Forecasting (from Greek. prognosis - foresight, prediction) - is the development of a reasonable assumption about the future state of the analyzed object. The concept of "forecasting" expresses the process of obtaining knowledge about the future in the form of a forecast based on scientific knowledge.
Forecastmeans prediction, assumption, prognostic model, which is a scientifically based judgment about the possible state of the object in the future and about alternative ways and timing of their achievement.
Unlike forecasting. the concepts of "prediction" and "foresight" refers to knowledge about the future obtained by any means and methods, including non-scientific ones. A forecast, in fact, like a prediction with foresight, is not a plan or program of action. Something predicted comes true, something remains unfulfilled or comes true with fundamentally different consequences than previously predicted.
characteristic feature social forecasting of the future is that the future, unlike the past and the present, does not exist, but acts as some, far from the only possibility. Graphically, this can be represented as a straight line stretching from the past to some point - the present - and then a set of vectors diverging in all directions, personifying possible options for the future.
Historically, the following ideological approaches to the study of the future have developed: religious, utopian and philosophical.
Religious Approach is based on the belief that the future is determined by supernatural forces, that it can be known through divination or divine revelation. The ideas developed by religion about the end of the world, about the appearance of a messiah-savior in the future, have a powerful influence on many millions of people. Developing their own vision of the future.
Utopian approach denies the present, absolutizes the future. To the unjust and “unreasonable” present structure of society, the utopians oppose the orders of a just future that have been painted in detail, created by the power of their imagination. Absolutizing the future, utopians present it as a complete phenomenon or system in which future generations are assigned the role of passive executors of once proclaimed truths and scrupulously written rules of conduct.
Philosophical approach is based on the prediction of the future as the next stage in the development of nature and society within the framework of the knowledge of the general laws of this development. Already in antiquity, philosophical thought developed certain approaches to social forecasting, based on the following concepts historical process:
Circulation (cyclicity), recurrence of social development (author Pythagoras, who lived in the 6th century BC);
Pessimism (retrospective), arguing that human happiness, a reasonable, fair structure of society is left somewhere behind. (Authors: the ancient Greek poet Hesiod and the ancient Roman poet Ovid);
Optimism (progress), believing in constantly committed social progress. (Authors: Protagoras, Democritus, Epicurus, Lucretius Kar).
Today, the theoretical development and justification different options development of society and man in the future is engaged in futurology (from lat. futurum- future and gr. logos- doctrine). Many eminent scientists devoted themselves to this field of knowledge. A special place among futurological organizations is occupied by the Club of Rome, an international non-governmental organization that brought together scientists, politicians, and businessmen concerned about the survival of mankind. different countries. Today, according to the definition of its first president, Aurelio Peccei, the Club of Rome is an "invisible college", the purpose of which is "to help people understand the difficulties of humanity as clearly and deeply as possible", as well as to stimulate the establishment of new relationships, political courses and institutions that would help correct the current situation.
The basis of scientific foresight is the knowledge of objective internal connections of objects and phenomena. This makes it possible in the process of cognition to move from the known to the unknown, from the past and present to the future. If the law of development of any phenomenon (process) is known, then by studying this phenomenon (process), we can not only state its present state, but also draw a conclusion about the direction and nature of possible changes.
Social forecasting is based on the analysis information array- sets of data that form a certain system of scientific facts and characterize the object of forecasting. The information array includes various sources: mass media, political reports, statistical data, radio programs, data from expert questionnaires, personal characteristics political leaders, assessments of their ideological beliefs, etc.
It is important in forecasting to take into account the social, economic, scientific and technical background against which the object of forecasting develops. It is this background as a set of conditions ( external factors) limits the development of the forecast object in the future, actively interacts with it.
The consequence of forecasting development prospects social phenomena and processes are exploratory, normative, complex and systemic forecasts.
Search forecast is a determination of the possible states of an object in the future based on the trends inherent in it in the past and present. Such a forecast answers the question in which direction development is taking place, what will be the state of the object of forecasting in a certain period of the future. An example of such forecasts can be forecasts of the population of the planet, the development of communications up to this or that particular year.
Normative forecast determines the ways and timing of achieving possible, desirable states of the object based on certain social norms, ideals, needs, goals. Unlike the exploratory forecast, the normative forecast is built in the opposite direction, that is, from a predetermined state of the forecasting object to the study of current trends and their possible changes that ensure the achievement of this state. Normative forecasting is the initial stage and necessary condition science-based planning, forecasting and design.
Forecasting can be applied to both controlled and spontaneous processes and phenomena. There are the following types of forecasts: short-term - for 1-2 years; medium-term - 5-10 years; long-term - 15-20 years and super-long-term - for 50-100 years.
Forecasts are developed using certain forecasting methods, which are a set of methods and procedures for selecting and analyzing empirical information in order to build a forecast. The Austrian futurist Erich Jancz has about 200 scientific methods, special techniques, logical and technical ways of knowing the future. However, in practice, no more than 15–20 forecasting methods are used. Conventionally, they can be divided into five groups: 1) extrapolation; 2) expert assessments; 3) modeling; 4) historical analogy; 5) future scenarios.
Extrapolation method based on the extension of conclusions obtained from observations of one part of the phenomenon to other parts of it. If a given system in the past was characterized by development at a certain constant speed or acceleration, then there is reason to believe that this speed or acceleration remains unchanged for a certain period of time in the future. However, the wrong choice of time intervals for forecasting often leads to the inconsistency of the continuation of past trends in the future.
Expert assessments- a method of analysis and study of complex problems. Its essence lies in the analysis of the problem by experts (leading specialists in various branches of science and technology), followed by a formalized processing of the results. The generalized thought of experts is accepted as the most likely solution to the problem.
Modeling method allows using the model to make a forecast of the future state of the object. There are several types of modeling: subject, physical, mathematical, logical, simulation or computer.
simulation, computer modelling – an experimental method for studying and predicting the dynamics of complex systems with the help of a computer. It can be defined as the process of constructing a model of a real system, followed by research and experimentation on this model. This is especially important when studying complex socio-economic processes at the regional and global levels, when a direct experiment is fundamentally impossible or may lead to unforeseen consequences.
In addition to simulation models, which today are the most common methods for studying and predicting global processes, historical models are widely used - images and scenarios of the future . The historical approach consists in determining the objective patterns and trends in the development of the system and is based on the principle of future determinism.
The scenario is a multivariate forecast that combines systemic and historical approaches to the study of complex systems; in most cases, it is descriptive and is widely used in the construction of complex forecasts. Scenarios find out: in what way a certain theoretical situation can be realized step by step; what options exist at each stage for each participant in the events in order to facilitate or avoid a certain development of events.
In practice, none of the considered methods can provide a high reliability of the forecast. Therefore, they usually turn to combined, complex methods. This approach makes it possible to eliminate the shortcomings of individual methods, to guarantee greater accuracy and reliability of forecasts.
A typical forecasting technique includes the following elements: pre-forecast orientation (definition of an object, subject, problem, goals, objectives, working hypotheses, methods, structure and organization of the study); building the initial model of the predicted object; forecast evaluation; development of recommendations for decision-making.
So, the forecast makes it possible to identify possible options for the development and resolution of the problems of the future, its mutually exclusive options, spontaneous and conscious processes, to determine the temporal and spatial parameters. Forecasting performs certain functions: socio-epistemological, heuristic, integrating, normative, communicative, search, etc. It gives an understanding of the historical perspective, helps to determine the direction of the socio-economic and political development to correctly navigate international events.
At the end of the past and the beginning of the present millennium, mankind faced a number of global problems, the timely and effective solution of which determines the present and future of mankind.
Global problems(lat. globe- ball; French global- universal, covering the entire planet, worldwide). These are problems that affect the interests of all mankind. They represent contradictions and difficulties that threaten the existence of civilization.
Many global problems arose in ancient times.
The problems of war and peace, the upbringing of the younger generation, the fight against hunger, epidemic diseases have been in the center of attention of mankind in all ages. By the 60s of the 20th (already past) century, these problems were not only repeatedly updated, turning into universal, global ones, but also began to be comprehensively investigated, analyzed, and forecasted. Today, globalistics is increasingly covering more and more new spheres of being. The consequences generated by global problems are widely discussed in domestic and foreign literature.
Researchers have grouped global problems into three main groups. To the first group relate super-global problems of the world order(global): problems of preventing war, eliminating the threat of terrorism, the problem of the constant development of the world and the related problem of global governance, including the management of scientific and technological progress, the establishment of a new economic order. Second group -. problems of a planetary, resource nature: rational and economical use of natural resources, the problem of environmental protection, the development of the oceans and outer space, the problem of preventing natural disasters, the problem of food. Third group - These are problems of a universal, sociocultural nature such as the guarantee of human rights, the elimination of social inequality, epidemics, the eradication of the consequences of urbanization of city building), as well as demographic, religious, interethnic health problems.
There are other approaches to the classification of global problems. However, regardless of the theoretical and methodological approaches of scientists, the food problem is always named among the most pressing. For its solution, it requires not only the tireless concerns of one or another state, but also the unification of the efforts of all mankind, the development of science, technology and the latest, including information technologies. This attitude to the problems of nutrition is dictated by the real conditions of existence of modern mankind.
As the world experience of human coexistence testifies, the food problem, despite its global nature, cannot be considered as an independent one, in isolation from many other problems facing humanity. Natural, regional, socio-cultural and other conditions and factors have influenced and will continue to influence its decision. No less important among them are religious, national and many other factors of social development. As some authors rightly point out, humanity has hundreds of thousands of years of cultural development behind its back, and the food of various modern peoples is the fruit of not only and even not so much nature as culture.
Our food is less and less like the types of food we used to eat. More and more new types of mixtures and all kinds of tubes appear on store shelves, which replace a person's milk, meat and other products from his traditional diet. Today, the chemical composition of food consumed is changing. In many ways, it is still not clear how the widespread use of genetically modified products, which has begun today, will affect the health of mankind. Moreover, the production of quality and safe food is inextricably linked with the use of new technologies, which in itself involve experimentation with different products and their respective modifications.
At the same time, one cannot discount the fact that a person has been accustomed to certain types of food for centuries, if not millennia, and this, one might say, is in his genes, in the intestinal microflora. So, if the Chinese are accustomed to rice cakes and transplant them into bread or Ukrainian borscht, then a sharp illness associated with indigestion is not ruled out. An abrupt transition to a "foreign diet" can be of little use, and at times dangerous.
The aggravation of the food problem is closely connected with the aggravation of the demographic problem, which widens the gap between the rich North and the poor South. The growth of prosperity in developed countries is taking place against the backdrop of total poverty in the countries of the "third world". According to the calculations of futurologists, if the consumption standard in the poorest countries is raised to the level of consumption of the "golden billion" that lives in developed countries, then in half a century it is necessary to double the consumption of all resources and increase energy production by about 500 times. An attempt to solve the problem of confrontation between the rich North and the poor Pivdnya by simply increasing consumption will thus lead to an even greater aggravation of environmental problems.
The demographic pressure from the poor South and the contrast between the levels of consumption in the countries of the "golden billion" and the countries of the "Third World" inevitably give rise to increased tension, which takes the form of political, religious and ethnic conflicts. In the poorest countries, the influence of extremism is spreading, one of the consequences of which is terrorism - the most serious problem of today.
All this indicates that all global problems are closely interconnected and interdependent, so their isolated solution is practically impossible. The inability of mankind to solve at least one of the global problems will have an extremely negative impact on the possibility of solving all other problems.
The system of global problems has a concrete historical character. Their exacerbation can cause a crisis of civilization. Today, more than ever, the possibility of a total (universal) destruction of civilization, an irreversible disruption of the mechanisms of the biospheric processes of the Earth and near-Earth space has arisen. Humanity can no longer rely on spontaneity in the evolution of the world order. To the modern world we need stability, democracy, civility, non-violence, creating conditions for human survival.
Global problems are one of the objective factors of world development. Their impact cannot be ignored. unresolved
global problems poses a threat to the existence of society on the planet. The aggravation of global problems is forcing humanity to look for new ways of interaction and development. Modern philosophers and futurologists talk about the need to change the ways of civilization development. In all forecasts, the main enemy of humanity is itself.
Overcoming global problems is associated: with the development of science, technology, the latest technologies; with a change in the relationship of man to nature; with purposeful and united efforts of the entire population of the planet; with the transformation of value attitudes and the change in the relationship between people, man and society, between states; search for new worldview guidelines for all mankind. In modern philosophy, this search is expressed in the emergence of the concepts of "planetary consciousness" and "noospheric understanding". The future depends on the person, his consciousness and will.
The ways of solving global problems largely determine what the general direction of social development, the general direction of social progress will be in the future. social progress- this is the continuous progressive development of society, in which new, higher milestones, levels and better qualitative conditions are achieved.
An important feature of social progress is its irreversible nature. Scientific foresight makes it possible, on the basis of knowledge of certain regularities and tendencies of historical development, to find practical means for solving social problems. The second feature of social progress is the increase in its pace, dynamics, and swiftness of progressive development. It is also characterized by: saturation with change and intensity scientific discoveries, technical inventions, international exchange in the field of science and culture.
At the same time, the concept of "social progress" cannot be used as an eternal, absolute truth. What is progressive for one historical period may be a regression, a halt in social development, for another period. The rejection of outdated directions and forms is the movement of society forward, its continuous qualitative renewal.
Solving the problems of accelerating social progress, the ideas of sustainable (regulated) development requires a new approach to understanding the interaction between states and social movements. There is no unity in the ideas of most scientists about the near and distant future. Some defend the position of "socio-ecological pessimism", arguing that the world has reached the apogee of the development of production, the use of limited resources, and in the near future it will collapse. Many Western experts in the field of ecology (J. Forrester, D. Meadows, B. Pestel) believe that humanity must choose between technological progress and the continuation of life on Earth. Russian researcher N.N. Moiseev believes, for example, that global processes in a world very menacing, where's the idea sustainable development is nothing but an illusion. And talking about such a development is reminiscent of the behavior of an ostrich hiding its head in the sand. Another Russian, N.N. Trubnikov, rejecting the idea of progress, considers it to be the last, not yet dethroned idol, equivalent to the persistent instinct of the herd, which moves further and further forward, in the hope that there will be more juicy grass.
In contrast to this approach, a number of domestic and foreign researchers are trying to prove that the limited sources of energy, food and other resources are not absolute, but relative, and humanity can solve these problems. In addition, history suggests that the presence of certain “limits to growth” may more likely serve as an incentive community development rather than a brake, for future generations, as it was in the past, will find a way out of difficulties. As a rule, representatives of this point of view belong to the supporters of social progress. Thus, in one of the latest reports of the Club of Rome, "Paths that Lead to the Future", the concept of the formation of a common "world order" is put forward, within which humanity can cope with existing problems and those that will definitely arise in the future. The intellectual progress of mankind will help to manage knowledge wisely and find a way out of deadlocks and crises. Man will increase his power, as in the past by writing and typography, now by computer and information technology, and in the future - new inventions. Social progress is not threatened with exhaustion intellectual abilities person.
Practice confirms that the leading trends in social progress are the growth of human freedom, the growth of humanistic values, the harmonization of personal and public interests, the internationalization of social relations, the desire for justice, equality, and the harmony of human relations with nature.
Reflecting on the prospects of mankind, it should be emphasized that we are talking about the possible formation of some kind of a single democratic and humane world community in which different forms property, different forms of social relations.
Only on this path is it possible to further unfold progressive processes, the flourishing of a new civilization. Appeal to culture, man, his spiritual world dictated by the need for a radical change in the productive forces, the rational use of the latest achievements scientific and technological progress.
In the future, as it has been in the past, social progress is not immune from zigzags, jumps, and even backward movements. Much depends on scientific foresight, the conscious and vigorous activity of people, political parties and governments in order to avoid negative trends in the development of society and accelerate social progress.
In the reference literature on this topic, see the articles:
Modern philosophical dictionary. - M., 2004. St.: "Future",
"Global", "Postmodern", with "Utopia", "Futurology".
New philosophical encyclopedia. In 4 volumes - M., 2001. St.:
"Globalistics", "Globalism", "Forecast", "Progress".
philosophical encyclopedic dictionary. - K., 2002. St.:
"Forecasting", "Progress / regression", "Philosophy of global problems".
PRACTICAL PART. Module III.
Social forecasting is a kind of research, the result of which is the scientific prediction of the course social processes, changes in the system of social relations, transformation of social objects and their structures, dynamic development social systems.
Foresight is general concept, which unites all types of obtaining information about the future. Scientific foresight is based on knowledge of the laws governing the development of nature, society, and thought; the intuitive is based on the premonitions of a person, the ordinary is based on the so-called worldly experience, related analogies, signs, etc .; religious - on the belief in supernatural forces that predetermine the future.
The result of scientific foresight is a forecast. A forecast is a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of certainty.
Foresight affects two interconnected sets of forms of its concretization: relating to the category of foresight itself - predictive (descriptive, or descriptive) and associated with it, relating to the category of management - pre-indicative (prescriptive, or prescriptive). Prediction implies a description of possible or desirable prospects, states, solutions to the problems of the future. Foretelling is connected with the actual solution of these problems, with the use of information about the future for the purposeful activity of the individual and society. The specificity of social forecasting lies in the fact that the prediction of social phenomena and processes and their management are closely related. Social forecasting directly or indirectly serves to improve the efficiency of social management and regulation of social processes.
TYPES OF SOCIAL FORECASTING (forecasts).
The typology of forecasts can be built according to various criteria depending on the goals, objectives, objects, subjects, problems, nature, lead period, methods, organization of forecasting, etc. The problem-target criterion is fundamental: what is the forecast for? Accordingly, two types of forecasts are distinguished: exploratory (they were previously called research, exploration, trend, genetic, etc.) and normative (they were called program, target).
Search forecast - determination of possible states of the phenomenon in the future. This refers to the conditional continuation into the future of the trends in the development of the phenomenon under study in the past and present, abstracting from possible decisions, actions on the basis of which can radically change the trends, cause in some cases the self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast. The search forecast is built on a certain scale (field, spectrum) of possibilities, on which the degree of probability of the predicted phenomenon is then established. Such a forecast answers the question: what is most likely to happen if the existing trends continue?
Normative forecast - determination of the ways and timing of achieving the possible states of the phenomenon, taken as a goal. This refers to predicting the achievement of desired states on the basis of predetermined norms, ideals, incentives, and goals. With normative forecasting, the same probability distribution occurs, but in the reverse order: from a given state to observed trends. Such a forecast answers the question: what are the ways to achieve the desired?
According to the lead period - the period of time for which the forecast is calculated - operational (current), short-, medium-, long- and long-term (super-long-term) forecasts are distinguished. Operational, as a rule, is designed for the future, during which no significant changes in the object of study are expected - neither quantitative nor qualitative. Short-term - for the prospect of only quantitative changes, long-term - not only quantitative, but mostly qualitative. The medium term covers the prospect between the short and long term with a predominance of quantitative changes over qualitative ones, the long term (super long term) - the prospect when such significant qualitative changes are expected that in essence we can only talk about the most general prospects for the development of the object.
According to the time criterion, short-term (operational), medium-term (tactical) and long-term (strategic) PS are distinguished. AT social sciences short-term is considered 1-2-year forecasting, medium-term - up to 5 years, long-term - up to 10 - 15 years
Operational forecasts contain, as a rule, detailed-quantitative assessments, short-term - general quantitative, medium-term - quantitative-qualitative, long-term - qualitative-quantitative and long-term - general qualitative assessments.
METHODS OF SOCIAL FORECASTING. Forecasting is based on three complementary sources of information about the future:
Assessment of development prospects, the future state of the predicted phenomenon based on experience, most often with the help of analogy with fairly well-known similar phenomena and processes;
Conditional continuation into the future (extrapolation) of trends, the patterns of development of which in the past and present are quite well known;
A model of the future state of a particular phenomenon, process, built in accordance with the expected or desirable changes in a number of conditions, the development prospects of which are quite well known.
In connection with the sources of information, the main methods of forecasting are distinguished. 1. EXTRAPOLATION is based on the extension of the conclusions made in the study of one part of any phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. It is based on the assumption that some trends in the development of a social object, which have manifested themselves in the past and present, persist in the future.
2. MODELING. The method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues - material or mental.
3. EXPERTISE. It is used in the study of questions with a low level of parameter certainty. This is a study of a problem that is difficult to formalize, which is carried out by forming the opinions of a specialist (expert) who is able to make up for the lack or non-systematic information on the issue under study with his knowledge, intuition, experience in solving similar problems or relying on common sense.
Mathematical Methods
Examples and the need for forecasts in social work
Social design as a technology for the implementation of social changes. The concept, typology and content of the social project.
Social design is a type of activity that is directly related to the development of the social sphere, the organization of effective social work, and the overcoming of various social problems. Social design is the construction by an individual, group or organization of an action aimed at achieving a socially significant goal and localized in place, time and resources.
Social project- this is a social innovation designed by the initiator of the project, the purpose of which is the creation, modernization or maintenance of a material or spiritual value in a changed environment, which has spatio-temporal and resource boundaries and whose impact on people is recognized as positive in its social significance.
The essence of social design is the design of a desired future.
Subjects of social design:
Legislation (since 1995)
Service
New St. in an old thing
new thing
Some organization (social services, rehabilitation center)
Non-material property of a thing (fashion. Advertising, image)
Events (charity, social action)
Typology of projects.
Normal project type is the conventional name of the project, which corresponds to 4 features: quality, resource provision, implementation time, project scale.
According to the nature of the projected changes:
Innovative project (implementation of fundamentally new developments), supporting (solving problems of an ecological nature, including within the framework of the ecology of culture.).
By directed activities:
Educational (tasks primarily related to providing educational services.), scientific and technical, cultural (artistic, symbolic, exotic, etc.).
According to the features of finance:
Investment projects (Investment is the contribution of property to a business with the aim of making a profit.), Credit project, sponsorship, charity, budget, grants (A. Nevsky, Vernadsky, Yashin, Lomonosov, Tsiolkovsky).
By scale of implementation:
Micro project (an individual initiative that received support and approval from the outside)
Small project (do not include too a large number consumers, are quite easy to manage, do not require large financing.)
Mega project (Mega projects are usually targeted programs consisting of interrelated projects.)
By implementation time:
short term (usually short term projects take about a year to complete, two years at the most.)
Medium-term (Usually medium-term projects are implemented in 3-5 years)
Long-term (Such projects are carried out for 10-15 years.)
According to the prestige of consumption:
Prestige projects (promotion of consumer goods)
Pseudo-projects (quasi-projects that have all the signs of project norms, but the proposed innovations are not really such)
Fiction-projects
Social forecasting is an area of sociological research (prospects for social phenomena and processes) and, at the same time, part of an interdisciplinary complex of future studies. In the USSR, it developed in the second half of the 60s, when the "boom of forecasts" reached Moscow.
Then it was crushed in the late 60s and throughout the 70s-80s. developed in two ways: official (as part of " Integrated program scientific and technological progress", which served as a scientific cover for voluntary planning) and unofficial (in one of the committees of the Union of Scientific and Engineering Societies). In 1989-1990, both branches entered a state of collapse. Since the beginning of the 90s, attempts have been made to revive this area of social research within the framework of the Association for the Promotion of the World Federation for Future Studies.
In the scientific literature, there are several approaches to explaining the essence of forecasting. The point of view of I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada, who proceeds from the fact that the forecast does not provide for solving the problems of the future, has received the greatest distribution. Its task is different: to promote the scientific substantiation of plans and decisions. Forecasting presumably characterizes a possible set of necessary ways and means of implementing the planned program of action. In this regard, a number of authors believe that a forecast should mean a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of certainty. Its difference from foresight lies in the fact that the latter is treated as an apodictic (improbable) statement about the future, based on absolute certainty, or (another approach) is a logically constructed model of a possible future with an as yet undetermined level of certainty. It is not difficult to see that the degree of reliability of statements about the future is used as a basis for distinguishing between terms.
There are other points of view. According to K. Schuster, the forecast has a specific character and is necessarily connected with the "calendar", i.e. with certain quantifications. Accordingly, he classifies the expected number of crimes in the next calendar year as a prediction, and the early release of a prisoner under known conditions as a prediction. A. Schmidt and D. Smith state that a forecast is usually understood as a quantitative prediction. Thus, a "line of demarcation" is drawn between qualitative (prediction) and quantitative (forecast) assessments of the future.
An interesting consideration expressed by D. Johnson. He believes that prediction is the prerogative of the physical sciences, since it requires the application of an "embracing law." Since the social disciplines have a weak basis for formulating laws of this type, they are limited to forecasts that reflect realistic or probable combinations of assumed orientations and initial conditions. Forecasts of social disciplines, in his opinion, act as "substitutes" for predictions of more exact sciences.
Some authors do not particularly find it difficult to define the essence of forecasting in the sense that they do not separate it from foresight and planning. There is a rational moment in these arguments, since social planning to a certain extent is also forecasting, but not vice versa.
A bad service in social prognostication was played by the fact that to some extent it began to be identified with the word "prophecy", which was assigned an unambiguous negative meaning. However, not to mention social prognostication, prophecy is not devoid of positive beginnings.
Elucidation of the essence of forecasting is inextricably linked, according to the just statement of V.A. Lisichkin, with the need to "develop a specifically prognostic system of concepts", including "the correct definition of the concept of" forecast "and distinguishing it from such concepts as foresight, prediction, plan, program , project, expectation, assumption, hypothesis".
In the works devoted to this issue or affecting it (meaning the works of I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada, A.V. Brushlinsky, A.M. Gendin, T.M. Rumyantseva, L.L. Rybakovsky, A.V. Ryabushina, etc.), many interesting thoughts were expressed about the specificity and correlation of the basic concepts of social prognostication. The complexity and difficulty of this task is due primarily to the fact that the question of delimiting categories in the analysis of problems of the future has not been the subject of special research until recently. Its solution is not limited to the circle of internal prognostic demands and involves terminological and semantic "docking" with other sciences that have gone through a more or less long path of development. And here a very contradictory situation arises.
On the one hand, the conceptual apparatus of social prognostication, which studies the laws, principles and methods of forecasting, cannot simply be borrowed from specific sciences. It is distinguished by the universality of terms, i.e. the applicability of each of them with the "assigned" value to it in different branches of knowledge.
On the other hand, while improving the conceptual apparatus, social prognostics cannot ignore the traditions that have historically developed in line with various sciences, when they performed predictive functions. This includes both the features of the use of terms (for example, the preference given to one or the other), and their interpretation.
But one should not exaggerate the fact that outside of social forecasting, an undifferentiated approach to it continues to exist: it is important that forecasting itself and its developments constantly deepen the understanding of the problems of forecasting.
The introduction into circulation as synonyms of a number of terms that are simultaneously among the main categories of prognostication creates conditions (of course, after each category has its own meaning in prognostics) for their subsequent differentiation in all sciences, including sociology. .
This direction of further development seems to be the most probable. It is indisputable that in the presence of a dilemma generated by the action of two trends in the use of predictive terminology, the choice in sociology is determined depending on the tasks being solved. It is this approach that makes it possible to overcome the doubts expressed by individual scientists that "in sociological theories there are no foundations for forecasts for the future."
More needs to be said about distinctive features social forecasting. First, the goal statement here is relatively general and abstract: it allows for a high degree of probability. The purpose of forecasting is, based on the analysis of the state and behavior of the system in the past and the study of trends in the factors affecting the system under consideration, to correctly determine the quantitative and qualitative parameters of its development in the future, to reveal the content of the situation in which the system finds itself.
Secondly, social forecasting does not have a directive character. In other words, the qualitative difference between a variant forecast and a specific plan is that the forecast provides information to justify the decision and choose planning methods. It indicates the possibility of one or another development path in the future, and the plan expresses the decision on which of the possibilities the society will implement.
And, finally, social forecasting has specific methods: complex extrapolation, modeling, the possibility of conducting an experiment. Let's dwell on this in more detail.
Social forecasting applies several methods. First of all, this is a method of expert assessments, designed to give an objective description of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the forecasting object based on the processing and analysis of a set of individual expert opinions. The quality of an expert assessment, its reliability and validity to a decisive extent depend on the chosen methodology for collecting and processing individual expert values, which includes the following steps: selecting the composition of experts and assessing their competence; compiling questionnaires for interviewing experts; obtaining expert opinions; assessment of the consistency of expert opinions; assessment of the reliability of the results; drawing up a program for processing expert opinions.
Solving such a difficult task as forecasting new directions, which is necessary to determine prospects and trends, requires more advanced scientific and organizational methods for obtaining expert assessments.
One of them is called "the method of the Delphic oracle", or "the method of Delphi". It provides for a complex procedure for obtaining and mathematical processing of answers. On its basis, scientists put forward forecasts for decades ahead regarding scientific, technological and social progress, military-political and some other problems. But to what extent are long-term (and even more super-long-term) forecasts compiled in this way and the very method of their formation reliable?
Forecasts obtained using the "Delphi method" are based on research and objective knowledge of the object, taking into account the subjective views and opinions of the respondents regarding this future.
In this case, intuition plays a big role, which can suggest the right decision, since it is based on the expert's extensive experience. Of course, in such cases, forecasts sometimes turn out to be erroneous, for which history knows many examples. Therefore, the intuitive approach does not always lead to desired results, especially when solving problems of great complexity, and social forecasting is increasingly faced with just such problems. The study of intuitive forecasts, writes, for example, the Austrian forecaster E. Janch, discovers that "they are rather random scraps of systematic thinking, non-critical extrapolations current state cases and repetition of other forecasts".
Usually, the "Delphi method" makes it possible to identify the prevailing judgment of the respondents on a selected range of problems. It is especially suitable for making short-term forecasts, predicting local events, i.e. in relatively simple cases. But the use of the method of expert assessments in any of its variants for long-term, comprehensive and even more so global social foresight increases the reliability of forecasts.
Along with the positive aspects of the method of expert assessments, its disadvantages should also be noted: it is cumbersome, since it takes a lot of time for each cycle of obtaining answers from experts, which provide a fairly large amount of information. In addition, since the method is based on the intuition and subjective views of the respondents, the quality of the assessment directly depends on the qualifications of the experts.
The method of mathematical modeling (solution optimization) is associated with the search for various development options, which makes it possible to select the best option for given conditions. The task of choosing the optimal option for long-term prospective development requires the definition of an optimality criterion, which should reflect the efficiency of the system and have a simple mathematical expression. Among the methods for solving optimization problems, linear programming is widespread. In dynamic programming problems, a system is considered that can change its state over time, and this process can be controlled.
All mathematical models and forecasting methods are probabilistic in nature and are modified depending on the duration of the forecasting period. The use of models increases the efficiency of forecasting, allows you to consider a large number of options and choose the most suitable one. However, there are also negative aspects in modeling, due to the lack of accuracy and elasticity of models when forecasting for a long period.
The extrapolation method is aimed at constructing dynamic (statistical or logical) series of indicators of the predicted process from the earliest possible date in the past up to the date of forecasting. In this case, the use of complex extrapolation formulas, the conclusions of probability theory, game theory - the entire arsenal of modern mathematics and cybernetics, which makes it possible to more accurately assess the scale of possible shifts in extrapolated trends, has a great effect.
Extrapolation is limited in social forecasting. This is due to a number of reasons. Some social processes develop along curves close to logic function. Until a certain period, the process slowly increases, then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After that, the process stabilizes again. Failure to comply with this requirement leads to serious errors.
One of the ways to test the reliability of this method may be extrapolation of growth curves "to the point of absurdity." It shows that the current mechanism should change in the future, new trends in its development will emerge. In this case, the correct solution requires an integrated approach that combines logical analysis, expert assessments and normative calculations.
Thus, social forecasting is based on the study of the objective patterns of scientific, technological and social progress, as well as on modeling options for their future development in order to form, justify and optimize promising solutions.
Foreign experience (in particular, the USA) shows that the forecasting of social systems occupies a leading position (53%) among other areas of research. In terms of time parameters, the ratio of studies in percentage is as follows: for 5 - 10 years - 52%; for 5 - 25 years - 64%; for 10 - 25 and more years - 26%.
The forecasting process itself involves: conducting a brief retrospective analysis predicted object; description of the current state of the object ( comparative analysis observed trends in domestic and foreign experience); problem identification:
already decided, but their implementation and implementation is just beginning;
those problems that have been solved, but have not found practical use;
assessments of experts in leading scientific research in the field.
The main conditions for the reliability of forecasts include:
a) depth and objectivity of the analysis;
b) knowledge of specific conditions;
c) efficiency, competence and speed in carrying out and processing materials.
Of particular importance in social forecasting is information, a database of statistical material.
In theoretical and methodological terms, it is necessary to take into account a number of important provisions:
perception of social processes as an objective reality;
using a holistic, systematic approach to research; historical determinism, i.e. recognition of the causal-causal conditions of these processes.
When analyzing the level of forecasting activity, one should take into account many factors that affect the effectiveness of forecasts and their qualitative characteristics.
There are factors of a fundamental, methodological nature, a high degree of complexity. This is, first of all, the ability to take into account the specifics of the relationship of socio-economic and spiritual-ideological aspects in the development of models, forecasts and their results.
Some organizational deficiencies should be attributed to two groups of people: those who develop models and forecasts, and those who try to implement the results of research.
Not high enough professional level forecasters, experts, their lack of information about the positions of potential customers, in whose interests certain models and forecasts are developed, lead to a number of undesirable moments, on the basis of which a number of conclusions can be drawn.
The first conclusion is the inconsistency in the prognostic reports of the volumes of descriptive and informational (up to 90%) materials with the procedural content. As a result, extremely important information about forecasting measures, the procedure for processing information, and the sources used is occupied by the smallest amount compared to retrospection.
The second conclusion is that often the primary attention is paid to the research approach to the very process of developing forecasts and less to the analysis of the prognostic background of the interrelationships of various factors, the so-called external environment, the use of higher-order forecasting systems.
Introduction
Forecasting (from Gr. prognosis - foresight, prediction) - the definition of development options and, based on available resources and time, the best ways to solve problems. Since an integral part of social forecasting as an essential part of social management is the study of the needs and interests of various categories of people, their consciousness and socially significant behavior, sociology plays an important role in its implementation. Together with social statistics, social psychology and economic sciences, sociology contributes to a comprehensive study of management objects and management situations, the formation of information databases, the development of optimal management decisions and verification of the effectiveness of their implementation, scientifically based social experiments, and the solution of many other problems at various stages of social forecasting.
Essence of social forecasting
Social forecasting is a logical concretization of social foresight. If foresight involves achieving some common purpose(i.e. associated with the statement that this must happen), then the forecast assumes that the goal can be achieved by several possible ways, the implementation of which depends on certain conditions and factors.
Clarifying the essence and content of social forecasting, it should be noted that the most widespread point of view is that the forecast does not provide for solving the problems of the future. Its task is different: to contribute to the scientific substantiation of development plans and programs. Forecasting characterizes a possible set of necessary ways and means of implementing the planned program of action. In this regard, a number of researchers believe that a forecast should mean a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of certainty.
Defining the essence of social forecasting, it is necessary to say about three main functions and its three stages:
1. identification of trends (patterns), factors causing possible changes (research stage);
2. identifying alternative development options, their dynamics as a result of making certain decisions (the stage of substantiating managerial decisions);
3. assessment of the progress and consequences of the implementation of management decisions, unforeseen changes in the external environment, situations for timely clarification of actions if necessary (stage of control and correction). These functions and stages are mutually dependent, being constituent elements of predictive activity in any field of activity.
As for the typology of forecasts, it can be built on various grounds depending on the goals, objects, problems, lead time, nature, etc. In scientific practice, two types of forecasts are used: exploratory (exploratory, trend, genetic) and normative (target, regulatory). The search forecast answers the question: what is most likely to happen if development trends continue. A normative forecast is a determination of the ways and timing of achieving the desired states of an object, process or phenomenon. The search forecast is built on a certain scale of possibilities, on which the degree of probability of achieving the predicted state is then established. In normative forecasting, the same probability distribution occurs, but in reverse order: from a given state to observed trends. This forecast is a probabilistic description of alternative ways to achieve the desired states, including the development of measures for their implementation.
Forecasts can have different lead times - short-term (a day, a year), medium-term (three to five years) and long-term (tens of years). The first are detailed. The further the lead horizon, the more important Scientific research and the duration of the retrospective (foundation time).
The nature of the forecasts is also not the same. It can have a functional (describe one of the components) or an integrated approach in the analysis of any object, process or phenomenon.
Depending on the object, the possibilities of forecasting are modified. For predicted natural or technical objects (earthquakes, hurricanes, fires), these possibilities may be close to zero, since no theoretical knowledge or managerial decisions are incapable or incapable of preempting a specific situation. In such cases, the forecast is limited to foresight and recommendations to minimize the consequences. For predictable social objects, the intensity of the relationship of foresight can be so high that it can change the predicted state through actions taken based on managerial decisions.
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